By Helen Ross
PGATOUR.COM Chief of Correspondents

Think N.C. State against Houston in 1983. OK, so that was basketball -- and for the NCAA title, no less -- but this upset was no less staggering.

Tiger Woods, the No. 1 player in the world, couldn't get past the first round of the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship last year. A lightly regarded Australian, Peter O'Malley, stunned Woods in a 2 & 1 victory.

Woods wasn't alone. Phil Mickelson, the No. 2 seed, and David Duval, ranked third, didn't do any better that day -- although Duval at least had the distinction of falling to the eventual champion, Kevin Sutherland.

Similar shockers have emerged at each of the first four WGC-Accenture Match Play Championships where the lower-seeded player has won 48 percent of the time. Match play, particularly when contested over a mere 18 holes, is golf's great equalizer.

In this format, holes are won and lost. Total strokes against par don't matter -- a player can score an 8 to another's 4 but he's still only down one hole. The problem comes in playing catch-up, though.

Just once has the No. 1 seed at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship reached the finale, the only match contested over 36 holes. Woods still lost in 2000, falling 4 & 3 to Northern Ireland's Darren Clarke -- who, at No. 19, remains the highest seeded player to win the $6 million event.

Sutherland was seeded No. 62 when he won last year and Steve Stricker was No. 55 in his 2001 victory in Australia. Jeff Maggert was seeded 24th when he nipped Woods in the quarterfinals and went on to beat Andrew Magee in 38 holes at the inaugural event.

The penchant for upsets notwithstanding, though, this just might be the year that competition at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship finally unfolds according to form. After all, 2003 has been the year of the veteran -- unlike last season when a record 18 first-time winners were crowned.

Three players, in particular, enter the tournament with momentum and the confidence that could carry them to the championship.

Those hoping for a showdown between Woods and Ernie Els may be surprised, though. The real fireworks just might be in the semifinals where Els could very well meet red-hot Canadian Mike Weir.

Thanks in large part to a lackluster 2002 season, Weir is the fourth seed in the Sam Snead bracket, where the dynamic Ryder Cup duo of Phil Mickelson and David Toms rank Nos. 1-2, respectively. Weir, a determined sort who has won two of his last four starts, could meet -- and beat -- Mickelson in the third round, then dispose of Toms in the quarterfinals.

Weir has the combination of length and accuracy to hang with Mickelson, who has a 3-3-2 combined record in singles at the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup. He's steady where Mickelson has been erratic this year -- posting three top 10s but shooting 80 in the final round of the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Not to mention, the controversy that followed Mickelson's comments about Woods' equipment has also been a distraction and doesn't appear ready to abate.

Toms, on the other hand, has been quiet, both on and off the course, with a tie for 11th at the Phoenix Open his best performance of the year. But while the LSU product is still looking to hit his stride, Weir is already there and ready to prove himself again -- if an ever-improving Chris Riley, seeded 10th, doesn't pull the upset first with a win over Toms in the second round.

Els, who has won four of his last five starts, should have a relatively easy time in the Gary Player bracket. Davis Love III, the recent AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am champion who is seeded second to the big South African, probably presents Els' biggest challenge in a potential quarterfinal match.

Trevor Immelman, who tied for third at the BMW Asian Open and won the South African Airways Open this year, could be one to produce a couple of upsets. But he'd have to face Els in the third round and The Big Easy certainly won't be as he gets closer to yet another title.

A semifinal match between Els and Weir could be a classic. Both men have won two PGA TOUR events already this year. While Els has won four Cisco World Match Play titles, though, Weir has more to prove as he looks toward a potential showdown.

In the other half of the bracket, Woods would once again have to be the favorite. He may not have won the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship -- but he's still reached the quarterfinals and championship match in two of his three prior appearances. No other player seeded in the top 10 has ever reached the finale.

Woods, ranked No. 1 in the Bobby Jones bracket, very well could face Justin Leonard in the third round -- an accomplished player who is a former U.S. Amateur champion like himself. Ireland's Padraig Harrington, who, like Woods won his 2003 debut, in all probability looms in the quarterfinals.. Also like Woods, the Irishman is better than his first-round loss last year.

Look for Woods, who shot 65 in the final round of the Nissan Open on Sunday to zoom into a tie for fifth, to reach the semifinals, though. His surgically repaired knee is pain free and he'd like nothing better than to win the one World Golf Championships event that has eluded him.

The winner of the Ben Hogan bracket would be Woods' opponent in the semifinals. Expect several intriguing match-ups to materialize in the second round -- Shigeki Maruyama against top-seeded Retief Goosen; veteran shotmaker Nick Price against Charles Howell III, a playoff loser on Sunday, and David Duval against the exuberant Spaniard, Sergio Garcia.

The biggest potential upset could find the eighth-seeded Maruyama, who earned the nickname the "Smiling Assassin" with his 6-2 Presidents Cup record, disposing of his former teammate in Goosen. But if Howell can shake off the frustration of losing his three-stroke lead to Weir at the Nissan Open on Sunday, the fifth seed just might be the one to mow down Goosen and advance to face Woods.

In the end, though, Garcia and Goosen will most probably square off to meet Woods. The second-seeded Garcia should have an easy time with the defending champion in the first round before turning back the inconsistent Duval. If he can get by the always dangerous Rocco Mediate in the third round, the Spaniard could surprise Goosen in the quarterfinals. Look for his emotions to get the better of him against Woods, though.

That leaves Weir and Woods to determine the $1.050-million first prize. The top seed has to win sometime, don't you think? But look for Weir to give Woods the kind of battle everyone is anticipating from Els in a truly memorable WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship finale.