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By The Numbers
Editor's Note: With a game ruled by numbers, it's time to have a way to break down what all those numbers really mean. With that in mind, we introduce By The Numbers, a blog where you can find stats-driven stories on anything and everything from ShotLink data to the different rankings to how equipment changes factor into a player's success to, well, any and every shot taken on TOUR.
Tiger's keys to victory
By Mike Vitti
For the third consecutive year Tiger Woods won the Buick Invitational with a driving accuracy rate under 50 percent and an overall driving average in the top three. Interestingly, these are the only two areas that have been consistent in Woods victories at this event.
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Normally dominant on the par 5s, Woods only tied for 32nd this week in par-5 birdie or better percentage, although he did finish in the top-10 for par-5 scoring average. In his fifth victory at this event, the stats show that he was victorious due to his accuracy on approach, touch around the greens and putting from 10-20 feet.
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By the Numbers: Tiger at the Buick
Tiger Woods at the Buick Invitational
Tiger Woods is teeing it up this week for the 10th time at the Buick Invitational. In his nine prior appearances he has four victories, a tie for second and a tie for third. Woods has never finished worse than a tie for 10th. If Woods does claim his fifth victory at Torrey Pines, he would have a winning percentage of .500 at this event, and it would be the third event in which he has recorded five victories.
It is interesting to note that 34 of Woods' 55 PGA TOUR victories have occurred at only nine different events. That represents 61.8 percent of his total victories.
In his 35 rounds at the Buick Invitational, Woods has only shot over par once and has recorded a total of 31 rounds under par. Woods' stroke average on the par 5s at the two courses used for this event is an incredible 4.30, and it does not hurt that he plays the par 4s at an average of 3.93. In 630 holes of play, Woods has only recorded a score of bogey or higher 10.48 percent of the time -- more than six percent less frequently than the average of the field over the same period of time.
By the Numbers: Watch the birdie
By Mike Vitti
The winning score at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic in 2006 was 25-under par. In 2005, it was 28-under par and the year before that it took 30-under par to get you into a playoff. As play begins on Wednesday in this unique 90-hole event, players are going to have to average in the neighborhood of six and a half birdies per round if they hope to win.
Last year's champion, Chad Campbell, averaged 5.40 birdies per round at the Bob Hope, which was the lowest since Jesper Parnevik won the event in 2000. Additionally, Campbell's season-long birdie average of 3.48 -- enough to place him in a tie for 106th--was the highest end-of-season ranking of any of the past 10 winners at the event.
Why is scoring so low?
Unfortunately, because four courses are used at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic, ShotLink is not available on every hole. Only the host course, The Classic Club, has ShotLink, so identifying the possible reasons for low scoring, such as closer proximity to the hole on approach or more putts over ten feet holed per player, is difficult for three of the venues being played this week. What is available is scoring data, and it looks like a big part of the reason for the low scoring is the relatively easy nature of the par-5 holes.
There were 189 par-5 holes played on TOUR in 2006. When ranked by scoring average, 10 of the 16 par 5s this week ranked among the 50 easiest on TOUR and seven were among the 30 easiest to score on TOUR. Only three of the holes cracked the top 100 in difficulty. In 2006, the TOUR average for par 5 birdie or better percentage was 41.16 percent, but on this collection of holes the average was closer to 50 percent, with the 18th hole on the Palmer Course averaging 62 percent.
By The Numbers: Keys to victory for Goydos
By Mike Vitti
Paul Goydos edged out Luke Donald and Charles Howell for his first victory on the PGA TOUR since 1996. Recording 21 birdies for the week, Goydos led the field in birdie average and was ranked in the top 10 in driving accuracy, proximity to the hole and greens in regulation.
Converting just over 80 percent of his scrambling attempts, Goydos' work around the greens was excellent, and even though he three-putted three times at the Sony Open, he still had an excellent week on the greens. For the week Goydos ranked in the top 5 in putting average, one-putt percentage, putts per round, birdie or better conversion percentage, average distance of putts made per round, and putting from 5-10 feet.
2007 Sony Open in Hawaii -- Tadd Fujikawa
Finishing tied for 20th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, 16-year-old Tadd Fujikawa had an impressive week in his home state. A quick look at some of Fujikawa's ShotLink statistics reveals that his performance this week could be a glimpse at a future regular on the PGA TOUR.
Fujikawa averaged 289.6 yards off the tee, while hitting 50 percent of the fairways -- both slightly above the average of the players that made it to the weekend in Hawaii. He did lead the field in right rough avoidance, but this may be more an indication of ball flight tendency than driving accuracy. In Fujikawa's numbers, his statistics on approach were probably what stood out the most. For the week he tied for first in greens in regulation and was sixth in GIR percentage from non-fairway lies. But what makes these stats even more impressive is that he was second for the week in proximity to the hole -- meaning he probably was not simply aiming for the center of the green.
Like most young players the areas where Fujikawa struggled a bit were on and around the greens. He was below the field average in scrambling success rate, putts per round, and conversion of putts in the 5 to 10 foot range. He did score well overall and he performed better than the field average in putting average and three-putt avoidance -- indications that he is on the right track and that we should be hearing more from this young player in the future.
By the Numbers: Don't count 'em out yet
40 + 30 = Win (Possibly)
J.B. Holmes opened the first round of the Sony Open in Hawaii with a 40 on the first nine holes he played. However, he closed strong with a 30 on his final nine for a score of 70 in the first round. Now before you go counting out Holmes, note that since 1980 there have been eight different PGA TOUR champions that have posted scores of 40 or higher on at least one of the nines in the first round and still went on to win. Vijay Singh had the most impressive turnaround going from 40 on one side to 28 on the other, and there were two players that have accomplished this at majors -- Larry Nelson at the U.S. Open in 1983; and of course Tiger Woods in his first Masters victory in 1997.
• Larry Nelson, 1983 U.S. Open o Opening round 75, 40 on the back-nine o No indication if he started on the front or back
• Greg Norman, 1984 Canadian Open o Opening round 73, 40 on the back-nine o No indication if he started on the front or back
• Lanny Wadkins, 1987 Doral-Ryder Open o Opening round 75, 40 on the back-nine o No indication if he started on the front or back
• Mike Sullivan, 1989 Independent Insurance Agent Open o Opening round 75, 41 on the front-nine o No indication if he started on the front or back
• Steve Elkington, 1990 Kmart Greater Greensboro Open o Opening round 74, 40 on the back-nine o No indication if he started on the front or back
• Tiger Woods, 1997 Masters Tournament o Opening round 70, 40 on the front nine o Started the round on the front nine
• Sergio Garcia, 2002 Mercedes Championships o Opening round 73, 40 on the back-nine o Started the round on the front nine
• Vijay Singh, 2004 Bell Canadian Open o Opening round 68, 40 on the back-nine o Started on the back-nine
Since the start of the season we have been getting questions about various topics on the PGA TOUR that relate to statistics, FedExCup points, and other numbers- based inquiries. So the editor thought it would be a good idea for me to answer some of them in this space. Here goes the first public response to a couple of the e-mails we have received...
How could the driving distance average at Kapalua be 255 yards when the guys had 400-yard drives? Is that correct? Fimis
The driving distance average at the Mercedes-Benz Championship was 255.1 yards with Brett Wetterich posting the longest driving average at 277.3 yards. Both values do appear to be quite low when there are more 400 yard drives at Kapalua than at any other venue on TOUR. However, even though the TOUR now measures the driving distance on all of the holes at this course, the average driving distance statistic you are referencing is only based on the driving distance data from two holes. Each of these two holes is selected so that they are in opposite directions, this week that meant that one was into the wind while the other was with the wind.
The reason we use this method for measuring average driving distance is to maintain continuity with the statistics that we began collecting in 1980. This allows us to compare the driving distance averages of different players over time.
However, since we started utilizing ShotLink, we do have another statistic that measures the average distance of all drives. At the Mercedes-Benz Championship this overall driving distance average was 282.1 yards, and J.B. Holmes lead the category with an average drive of 301.9 yards.
I have seen the points set up explained on your site but nowhere can I find how ties are resolved and I am absolutely puzzled as to how the Mercedes-Benz Championship points were divided. Thanks, Anthony
The ties for points work the same as they do for money. The simple explanation is that eligible players that are tied split the points for the positions that they occupy. For example, in the FedExCup point system, if there are two players tied for second they would evenly divide the points that are awarded for second and third place and the next highest player would be awarded the points for fourth. If there were three players tied for second then they would split the points awarded for second, third, and fourth place and the next highest player would get fifth.
Looking at last week's results from the Mercedes-Benz Championship, Singh finished first and earned 4,500 points, Adam Scott was second earning 2,700 points, while Trevor Immelman finished third and earned 1,700 points. After that J.B. Holmes, Davis Love III, and Will MacKenzie all tied for fourth, earning 1,033 points. That total was created by adding the points for fourth place, fifth place and sixth place (1200, 1000, and 900 respectively) and then dividing by three -- points are then rounded in the standings. The formula looks like this....
(1200+1000+900) = 3100 3100/3 = 1033.33
Luke Donald, who finished just behind the group tied for fourth, was awarded the 838 points that players receive for a solo seventh place.
By the numbers: A closer look at the Sony Open in Hawaii
By Mike Vitti PGATOUR.com ShotLink analyst
The first full field event on the PGA TOUR kicks off this week with David Toms defending his title at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Last year Toms had an incredible week from tee to green and even set a new course record. He will need to have another good performance in order to defeat a strong field at Waialae Country Club.
2006 Champion David Tom's ShotLink Notes:
• Toms led the field in ball striking by finishing 11th in driving distance, averaging 307.4 yards off the tee, ninth in driving accuracy, hitting 55.4 percent of the fairways and tied for second in greens in regulation, finding the green 75.0 percent of the time.
• With 17 approach shots landing within 15 feet of the pin, Toms was not only hitting greens, but he was hitting it close -- finishing the event fifth in average proximity to the hole at 27 feet, 9 inches.
• In carding his course-record 61, Toms hit 8 of 14 fairways, 13 of 18 greens and finished with an average proximity to the pin of 24 feet, 6 inches.
• Six of Toms' 18 missed greens landed on the fringe.
• On the rare occasions when Toms did miss the green, he still managed to get up and down for 72.2 percent of the time.
• At an average distance of 5 feet, 3 inches, Toms finished sixth in average proximity to the hole on scrambling attempts.
• With a putting average of 1.630 putts per green in regulation, Toms tied for first in putting average and also tied for third in putts per round at 27.25.
• Toms converted 40.7 percent of his birdie and eagle opportunities, and one-putted a total of 31 greens.
• Toms averaged 87 feet, 10 inches in total distance of putts made per round, finishing 10th in this category.
• Toms spread his scoring evenly across the course -- tying for first in birdie-or-better percentage on par 3s, par 4s and par 5s, as well as ranking first and tied for second in front and back nine scoring average, respectively.
• Even on the rare occasion when Toms made a bogey, he managed to make birdie on the next hole 80 percent of the time.
Wie's at it again
Michelle Wie is in the field this week trying for the fourth time to make the cut at her home course. Here's a quick look at how she has faired against the field on this course. In particular, how she has done against those moving on to the weekend shows that she will need to hit more greens and do a better job scrambling if she hopes to be play all four rounds.
Who to Watch in 2007
With the winner of this event usually being well below par, the ability to attack the greens and make birdies is going to be very important. That being said the five key ShotLink statistics to keep an eye on at Waialae Country Club are:
1. Driving Distance, All Drives
2. Greens in Regulation
3. Going for the Green - Birdie or Better Percentage
4. Par Breakers
5. Birdie or Better Conversion Rate
Most of these stats are probably familiar to you, except perhaps the going for the green -- birdie or better percentage statistic. This is an interesting stat that was created last season to track the percentage of times when a player tries to reach a par 5 in two or a par 4 from the tee that the strategy successfully results in a score of par or better. Last year the leader in this statistic was Adam Scott at 80.95 percent, but defending champion David Toms ranked second at 75 percent.
Here's a look at the top-10 players to watch based on their 2006 rankings in the five key ShotLink statistics...
By the numbers: Singh's keys to victory
By Mike Vitti
Vijay Singh was 10th in total driving distance at the Mercedes-Benz Championship. He tied for 16th in greens in regulation at 76.39 percent and proximity to the hole at 42 feet, 4 inches and tied for 25th in driving accuracy at 71.67 percent.
Just looking at these stats it is easy to assume that his 30th victory on the PGA TOUR was a typical Singh victory based on solid ball striking. However, in a field of only 33 ranked players, Singh's ball striking rankings were closer to the field average than those of the event leaders. So where did he win this event?
On and around the greens of course!
Leaving himself with an average par putt length of 5 feet, 9 inches, Singh converted 15 of his 17 scrambling attempts for a rate of 88.24 percent. This is more impressive when you look at the details. Only two of Singh's attempts were from the fringe, while he had seven from the rough (converted six); three from bunkers (converted 2); and the remaining five from other locations were all converted successfully.
Holing nine putts from over 10 feet in length -- tying for second most at the event - you may see that Never Compromise belly putter in Singh's bag for a little while. Overall, Singh finished first in one-putt percentage; second in putting average, putts per round, and average distance of putts made; third in birdie or better conversion percentage and tied for third in three-putt avoidance.
By the Numbers: A moment for rebuttal
By Mike Vitti
John Maginnes once told me that he reads the stats I send him each week right after he reads his horoscope. So I can't say I am surprised that he started his Saturday column by saying, "I hate statistics." With his formal training in philosophy, I expect that Maginnes uses The Force or tea leaves to prepare his analysis each week (just kidding, John).
I can understand his frustrations with the statistics, though. Thanks to ShotLink, we are now able to collect and compute hundreds of statistics on every player on almost every course played on the PGA TOUR. This is definitely a benefit to the game, but it can also be a bit overwhelming.
Golf has always been a game based on feel and that has extended through the way the analysis of the game has evolved. Players are described in descriptive terms like ball-strikers (Sergio Garcia, Joe Durant, Adam Scott) or excellent putters (Brad Faxon, Ben Crane), but the reasons for these definitions could not be quantified objectively. With ShotLink, we can now objectively say that Adam Scott is in the top 20 in overall distance off the tee, greens in regulation, proximity to the hole and approaches from the fairway from 150-175 yards -- and that is definitely someone who qualifies as a great ball striker.
ShotLink also shows objectively what the effect the small greens at Harbour Town have, and as Maginnes accurately pointed out, how the wind affects different holes at Kapalua. Beyond that, ShotLink statistics can be used to identify what may have led to a player's recent improved play or why a player may be struggling. Players can then use those stats to focus practice time or make changes to their approach or even their equipment.
With ShotLink we are also able to identify whether a player tends to hit the ball more to the right or to the left, how accurate they are from specific distances and the percentage of times they go for the greens on par 5s. But I must concede that the predictive value of this data is limited.
Each week I try to identify the players whose games appear to suit the course being played based on the performance of past players in that event. Now, while the analysis usually does a good job in identifying the particular statistical attributes that will be needed to tackle a particular course, the disclaimer of past performance not being a valid prediction of future success comes into play. For example, picking Jonathan Byrd as a player to watch at last year's BellSouth Classic where he finished sixth was a good choice, but the selection of Brett Wetterich this week at Kapalua did not turn out too well.
If I ever figure out the formula for making exact predictions on who will win that week on the PGA TOUR, I probably won't be sharing my findings -- and my address will definitely be changing to Las Vegas where I use the results legally.
Editor's note: We'll be tracking how well Mike and John do with their picks. Check back on Wednesdays to see how they stack up against each other.
By the numbers: Hitting the long ball
By Mike Vitti
In Thursday's first round of play at the Mercedes-Benz Championship, there were nine drives that traveled at least 400 yards, and if history is any indication there are more to come at this event.
Since the 2003 season when ShotLink first started collecting data through the end of 2006 there have been 188 drives on the PGA TOUR that have measured at least 400 yards. Of those drives, 114 have occurred at Kapalua while Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado is the next closes with 21.
So who do you think has hit the most over this span? Bubba Watson? J.B. Holmes? Both are good guesses, but you'd be wrong. It is none other than the King of Kapalua, Stuart Appleby, with nine. Not all of them were struck at the Mercedes-Benz Championship, though. Three of the nine were launched on the 666-yard, par-5 16th hole at Firestone Country Club.
One guy who did get hold of one in the first round was Brett Wetterich who hit the longest drive in the first round. Wetterich's tee shot at the 12th hole measured in at an amazing 437 yards. However, it did not even approach the longest drive recorded by ShotLink, which also occurred at Kapalua. That particular honor goes to by Davis Love III who in 2004 managed to hit his drive on the 18th hole an unbelievable 476 yards.
Now, hitting big drives is impressive, but does it really translate into results on the scorecard? Excluding the drives at Castle Pines, as it is not a stroke-play event, there were 167 total drives that traveled at least 400 yards. Of these, 60.48 percent managed to find the fairway -- a better rate than I expected from drives of this distance. Of the 167, there were 109 drives hit on par 5s, but only six of them were converted into eagles -- a rate of 5.5 percent -- versus eight that resulted in scores of bogey or higher -- a rate of 7.3 percent. However, 66 of the par-5 drives were successfully converted into birdies on the card -- a rate of 60.6 percent. On the par 4s, only one of the drives resulted in a score of bogey while 39.7 percent were converted into birdies -- but that still leaves about 60 percent that only managed pars from their prodigious moon shots. Overall, it looks like hitting the booming drives is impressive, but it is not a guarantee for success -- unless of course you are named Appleby and playing at Kapalua.
By The Numbers
By Mike Vitti What a difference an island makes By now every golf fan is aware that Stuart Appleby has won the season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship the last three years. It is obvious from Appleby's statistics and results how well he scores at the Plantation Course. His par-4 and par-5 scoring averages and birdie conversion percentages over the last three events at this venue are very impressive -- especially when compared to the same data from the other 43 single-course ShotLink events he played over the same period of time.
Scoring and victories are a result, though, not a cause. So as Appleby goes for his fourth consecutive win at Kapalua to open the new FedExCup season, I thought it would be interesting to compare his aggregated ShotLink statistics from his three victories to those of the other 43 events he competed in to identify why this course appears to suit his style of play.
During his three-year run on the Plantation Course, Appleby has driven the ball a total of 180 times in regulation play. On those 180 par-4 and par-5 attempts, Appleby has found the fairway 138 times for a driving accuracy rating of 76.7 percent while averaging 295.5 yards in driving distance and hitting 41.1 percent of his drives at least 300 yards. Comparing those totals to the 2,090 drives he put in play at the 43 single-course ShotLink events he competed in from 2004 -2006, Appleby hit 60.1 percent of the fairways, averaged 285.8 yards and hit 26.6 percent of the drives over 300 yards. With double-digit increases in each of the categories it is easy to see why he likes playing at Kapalua.
However, these off the tee statistics do need to be tempered slightly, as the fairways at the Plantation Course are some of the easiest to hit on TOUR, and the trade winds there lead to some amazing distances -- as evidenced by Appleby's six drives that exceeded 400 yards at this course. One interesting bit of information is that Appleby does tend to miss right a lot less at Kapalua (9.5 percent vs. 16.9 percent), which could make him feel a bit more comfortable on the tee.
Even though the fairways are forgiving for everyone, Appleby has done an excellent job taking advantage of his opportunities from favorable lies. During his three victories, he has never hit fewer than 12 fairways in a round and seven times he has hit at least 14 greens in a single round. Appleby's combined GIR percentage over the last three years at this event is 78.2 percent -- more than 14 points higher than his average of 64 percent at the other ShotLink events. From the fairway, Appleby has hit the green on 82.6 percent of his approach shots and has converted 29.4 percent of his approaches into birdies or better. Very impressive numbers, but these results do not vary too much from his respective rates of 75.8 percent and 27.7 percent at the other 43 venues.
The area where Appleby does appear to benefit the most at Kapalua is on the greens. During his amazing run at the Mercedes, Appleby has successfully converted 72.3 percent of his scrambling attempts and while his conversion rate is much higher than the combined success rate of 59.9 percent he has posted at the other ShotLink events, his average proximity to the hole of 7 feet, 3 inches is identical in both categories. So his success rate at Kapalua is based more on his putting than his play around the greens.
Appleby's basic putting stats are similar both at Kapalua and away from it. During the three events on Maui, he has one -putted 42.1 percent of the holes, has a putting average of 1.704 and is averaging 28.58 putts per round. Those totals are nt that different from the respective averages of 39.5 percent, 1.768 and 28.58 at the other events. Where Appleby is making a difference is in his putts made percentage in the 10 -- 15 foot range. Away from Kapalua, his rate was 27.6 percent but during his victories the success rate jumped to 48.6 percent. The impact of this success can be seen directly in his birdie conversion percentage which elevates from 29.2 percent off the island to 39.29 percent at Kapalua.
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