Fantasy Insider: John Deere Classic

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Fifteen of the 29 who finished inside the top 25 at the AT&T National are in the field at this week's John Deere Classic. This includes rookie Chris Kirk, who tied for eighth at Aronimink, but he's listed in "Danger" below. I share my analysis as it relates to him specifically, but rookies in general have not fared well at TPC Deere Run recently.

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Since 2009, first-time PGA TOUR members are a collective 11-for-41 with only two top 25s. Spencer Levin's T15 in 2009 is best of the lot, while Josh Teater's T21 was the better of just two (of 15) that made the cut last year. Therefore, if you're waffling over rookies and veterans, consider the seasoned pros first.

We're now two weeks into the new Matchups Game on Facebook, and I'm one of 32 atop the standings with the maximum 21 points. After a 4-0-0 week at the AT&T National, I'm now 8-0-1 on the year. I'm not eligible for the prizes, but I will always post my picks here if you want to play against me or if you're looking for help making decisions.

My picks for the John Deere Classic:
• Jason Day over Zach Johnson
• Stewart Cink over Louis Oosthuizen
• Jonathan Byrd over Jhonattan Vegas
• Steve Stricker over David Toms
• Paul Goydos over David Duval

The PGATOUR.com staff also publishes its picks, which you can review here.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Troy Matteson ... All sorts of angles to love here. Top 20s in two of this last three starts, including a T20 at Aronimink. Two top 10s at TPC Deere Run in five starts, including last year's T10 when he led the field with three eagles, one of which was a hole-in-one (second round, par-3 seventh hole). Owns the PGA TOUR record for lowest aggregate in consecutive rounds when he went 61-61=132 in the middle of the Frys.com Open in 2009, which he won in a playoff. That's the kind of lights-out approach that works this week.

12. Brandt Jobe ... Stumbled to a T56 with a closing 73 at the Travelers two weeks ago, but he's been a top-25 machine otherwise, with six in his last 10 starts. Ranks 22nd in greens in regulation and 19th in birdie average. Ignore his 1-for-6 record at TPC Deere Run.

13. Robert Garrigus ... Followed his share of third at Congressional with a T20 at Aronimink. Ranks 49th on TOUR in greens hit and 22nd in birdie average. Placed T23 here in 2009.

14. Stewart Cink ... First appearance here since 2005. Currently 41st on TOUR in greens hit and 25th in birdie average. Six top 20s this year, including three in May.

15. Paul Goydos ... All he did here last year was open with a 59 and the field in fairways hit (51 of 56), greens in regulation (65 of 72) and proximity to the hole (21 feet, six inches). But Steve Stricker snipped him by two strokes on the strength of burying three more birdies (31-28). Goydos has been erratic lately, but managed a 66 at Aronimink in the second round and posted a pair of top 10s in May.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Jonathan Byrd (7); Steve Marino (9)

Group B ... Steve Stricker (1); David Toms (4); Chris Stroud (8); Bryce Molder (10)

Group C ... Jason Day (2); Charles Howell III (3); Zach Johnson (5); John Rollins (6); Troy Matteson (11); Brandt Jobe (12); Robert Garrigus (14); Stewart Cink (14); Paul Goydos (15)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

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Louis Oosthuizen (A) ... Given that he's a first-timer and still a relative unknown to gamers because of his limited schedule, he could be a difference-maker in Yahoo! this week. Note that only two from Group A crack my top 15. He hasn't played since sharing ninth at the U.S. Open, where he ranked T3 in birdies.

Cameron Tringale (C) ... Top 25s in two of his last three starts, including a T25 at Aronimink, where he posted a bogey-free 64 in the third round. En route to a share of eighth place at the St. Jude Classic a month ago, ranked inside the top 15 in fairways, greens, putting and birdies.

John Merrick (C) ... Making the most of his limited opportunities due to conditional status. Enters with three consecutive top 15s. Par or better in 11 of his last 12 rounds, including his last eight. Ranks 28th on TOUR in greens hit and 65th in birdie average.

D.J. Trahan (B) ... Has shown recent flashes, with a 62 in the second round of the Travelers, which resulted in his second consecutive top 20. Always on the short list of hopeful contenders when greens in regulation is a primary objective. He's finished inside the top 10 in GIR in his last two starts, and ranks 36th on TOUR.

Heath Slocum (A) ... Ranks sixth on TOUR in greens hit and is coming off consecutive top 20s at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Has made the cut in his last five appearances here, with top 15s from 2005-2007.

Pat Perez (B) ... Since posting three top-six finishes in a four-event stretch this spring, he's failed to record a top 25 in four starts. However, gamers are familiar with his knack to go low without warning, such as when he buried 18 birdies in his first 36 holes at Quail Hollow two months ago.

James Driscoll (C) ... With two top 10s in 13 starts, he's already established a career high for a single season, and both have come in his last three events. This includes his last start at the Travelers, where he ranked T6 in both greens in regulation and birdies (also had one eagle). Worst case, long-term gamers should consider finding room for the veteran as he's now inside the top 125 in FedExCup Points (112th).

Andres Romero (B) ... On pace for a career high in starts in what is his fourth year on TOUR, so that elevates his value for long-term gamers, but he should never be ruled out in a shootout. Closed out a T21 in his debut here last year with a seven-birdie 65. Ranks 27th on TOUR in birdie average.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

D.A. Points (B) ... The native of nearby Pekin, Illinois is 0-for-5 at this event. And since his breakthrough at Pebble Beach in February, he's posted just one top-35 finish in 13 starts (T20, Memorial).

Chris Kirk (B) ... Impressive T8 at the AT&T National, but he ranked T66 in greens in regulation, which is worse than his TOUR-wide 58th in the category. He's been on either end of the spectrum for months now, having posted three top 20s in his last 15 starts, but he's only made five cuts during that period. A good reminder not to invest in rookies in short-term formats.

Mark Wilson (C) ... Best finish in eight starts here is a T39 (2004 and 2010). Ranks 39th on TOUR in greens hit, but 121st in birdie average. Missed the cut at Aronimink last week, where he hit 25 greens but needed 64 putts.

Marc Leishman (A) ... His missed cut at the AT&T National, where he opened with an 80, extended his drought of zero top 40s to 10 consecutive starts.

Matt Jones (B) ... With fifth-place finishes here the last two years, something has to give. In his last three opening rounds going back to the Memorial, the Aussie has signed for scores of 82, 75 and 77. TPC Deere Run could be just what he needs, but his current form is concerning.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Chris Couch (C) ... Withdrew after 27 holes of the AT&T National due to an injury in his lower back.

Derek Lamely (B) ... First start since calling it quits after 11 holes of the Memorial on June 2. He has a small cartilage tear in his wrist (left/right unspecified). Currently riding an 0-for-13 skid.

Richard S. Johnson (B) ... Nursing a sore shoulder that he had examined in Memphis on June 8. This past Sunday, wrote the following on his Twitter page: "Made it to Moline. Great to play again. Shoulder a lot better!"

Ernie Els (A) ... Withdrew early from the AT&T National due to a "slight back strain." Scheduled to compete in this week's Scottish Open on the European Tour.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Tom Gillis (B) ... Top 25s the last two weeks, including a T25 at the AT&T National.

Boo Weekley (C) ... Withdrew prior to his second round at the AT&T National due to a rib injury.

Chad Collins (C) ... Would have been his first start since withdrawing from the St. Jude Classic after 31 holes. The reason for his absence remains unknown.

Steve Flesch (C) ... Closed out a second-to-last-place finish at the AT&T National with a 75 during which he carded zero pars on his second nine. Had an eagle, three birdies, four bogeys and one double.

Tom Pernice, Jr. (C) ... Opted to play Champions Tour event at Pebble Beach instead this week.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.