Fantasy Insider: the Memorial Tournament

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If you thought that winning at Augusta National in a debut was difficult -- it's happened only three times at the Masters -- try the Memorial on for size. Not since Roger Maltbie defeated Hale Irwin on the fourth playoff hole in the inaugural edition in 1976 has a winner broken through in his first visit, and that accomplishment was, of course, an automatic for no matter who won. Furthermore, Justin Rose became only the fourth winner in the 35-year history of the event to make the Memorial his first PGA TOUR victory. Keith Fergus (1981), Kenny Perry (1991) and Tom Lehman (1994) preceded him. And a PGA TOUR rookie has never emerged victorious at Muirfield Village.

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MEMORIAL

Tee Times
TOUR Report
Notable Groups
Power Rankings
Choosing Sides

So, what does this mean for fantasy gamers? It's simple. Temper your expectations on guys like Byron Nelson champ Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Jhonattan Vegas, Brendan Steele, Tommy Gainey, Kyle Stanley, Chris Kirk, Bobby Gates and others that will haven't logged a single competitive round at Muirfield Village, despite how they might match up with the course profile. Even tournament host and course designed, Hall of Famer Jack Nicklaus, didn't win his first of two Memorials until his second appearance in 1977.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Bubba Watson ... Probably better suited for more wide-open tracks, but there's enough elbow room tee to green for his benders. Plus, in the four (of five) cuts he's made here, he's finished from T23 to T34 in all. But bottom line, he's a superb fit for par-72 Muirfield Village, ranking eighth in total driving (including second in distance), eighth in greens and first in par-5 scoring average.

12. Rickie Fowler ... Came as close as possible here last year to becoming the first rookie ever to win the Memorial, and first since inaugural champ, Roger Maltbie, to hoist the trophy in his first appearance. Gunning for a wire-to-wire win, Fowler took a three-stroke lead into the final round, but ultimately settled for runner-up honors by the same margin to Justin Rose, who shot 66 to Fowler's 73. During his close call, Fowler went bogey-free 17-under during a 53-hole stretch.

13. Aaron Baddeley ... This will all depend on how well he drives the ball. He's 134th in accuracy off the tee, but inside the top 30 in greens hit and stroke gained-putting. That approach has led to seven consecutive cuts made worldwide, including top 10s in his last two. Just one top 10 here in nine starts, but he's never hit his irons as well as he is right now.

14. Steve Stricker ... No top 10s in 11 career appearances here, but he's performed exceptionally well on his new reduced schedule, with top 20s in each of his last five starts. Ranks 24th on TOUR in greens in regulation and fifth in strokes gained-putting.

15. Jim Furyk ... The 2002 Memorial champ has posted top 10s here the last two years, but has now gone five straight weeks without a top 20. Group A is loaded this week, so you don't need to take the plunge, but he still deserves this slot.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Matt Kuchar (1); Luke Donald (2); Nick Watney (3); Phil Mickelson (8); Dustin Johnson (10); Jim Furyk (15)

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Group B ... Hunter Mahan (4); Bill Haas (6); Jeff Overton (9); Bubba Watson (11); Rickie Fowler (12); Steve Stricker (14)

Group C ... Stewart Cink (5); J.B. Holmes (7); Aaron Baddeley (13)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Bo Van Pelt (B) ... The trendy pick of the week. He shared third place here last year (his second career T3 at the Memorial), when he carded a mere three bogeys all week, and arrives on the heels of a solo third in his last start at Colonial, where he finished T11 in greens in regulation, second in putting and T2 in birdies. Currently 13th on TOUR in total driving and 36th in GIR.

Rory McIlroy (C) ... The missed cut in defense of his title at Quail Hollow was his first MC anywhere since last year's U.S. Open. He placed T24 at Wentworth last week, and has had only two finishes outside the top 25 in his last 15 starts worldwide. Finished tied for 10th in his Memorial debut last year.

Webb Simpson (B) ... Ranks 20th in total driving, 13th in greens hit and second in the all-around. Hasn't teed it up since THE PLAYERS, so he's rested.

Martin Laird (A) ... Shared 60th in his first appearance here last year. Six top 10s in 2011, including a T10 in his last start at Colonial. Currently 24th on TOUR in total driving, 48th in greens and 43rd in strokes gained-putting. A sneaky option in Yahoo!'s Group A if you're saving starts elsewhere.

Steve Marino (A) ... Easily overlooked in such a deep field. Seventeen of the top 20 in FedExCup points are scheduled to compete, and Marino is one of them (17th). Three consecutive top 25s upon arrival. Also has top 25s in his last two appearances here. Ranks 20th on TOUR in total driving, 27th in greens hit and 20th in the all-around.

Brandt Jobe (C) ... Returning to Muirfield Village for the first time since sharing fourth place in 2006. He's an excellent fit given that he's seventh in total driving and 23rd in greens in regulation. His T20 at last week's Bryon Nelson was his fifth top 20 in his last 10 starts.

Kenny Perry (B) ... The three-time Memorial champion has made the cut here in 17 consecutive starts. He's placed inside the top 25 in five of his last six, including last year's T17. His best finish in eight starts on the PGA TOUR this year is a T39 at THE PLAYERS, but if he qualified for the statistical rankings, he'd be 19th in total driving and 13th in greens hit. Still long enough off the tee to contend, too. A nice flier in deeper formats.

Robert Karlsson (C) ... First appearance here since 1998. Took a week off after his T5 at Colonial, where he carded four rounds in the 60s, closed with a bogey-free 67 and suffered just five holes over par all week. Ranks 27th on TOUR in distance off the tee, so he's still moving it.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Justin Rose (B) ... It's always difficult fading the defending champion anywhere unless there is a venue change, and he has three top-four finishes in six starts at Muirfield Village, but the Englishman has failed to post a top 25 in his last three events. He's close, but his putting has prevented an appearance on the leaderboard since a backdoor T11 at the Masters.

Keegan Bradley (C) ... The skeptic in me would like to see how he fares playing on the lead. The rookie was in the sixth-to-last group on Sunday and benefited from a series of shortfalls to backdoor his way into the playoff. It was a fantasy coup for those on board, but he's a first-timer this week. Despite that he's a pretty good fit at Muirfield Village (10th in total driving, 64th in greens), given the emotion following his breakthrough, simply making the cut this week would be a bonus.

Ryan Palmer (C) ... Not saying it can't happen or that he's never been hot for a stretch, but the next time he follows a top 10 with another will be the first. Shot 5-over 73-72 on the weekend at the Bryon Nelson before losing in the playoff on the first hole. He hit 24 greens and still needed 64 putts in his last 36 holes. Also, his best finish in four tries at the Memorial is a T39 in 2006.

Gary Woodland (C) ... Certainly one of the guys on the short list of first-timers that could sit atop the leaderboard on Sunday -- he's 19th in total driving and 16th in greens in regulation -- but give him one appearance before revisiting in 2012. Also coming off a stinging 81 on Sunday at the Byron Nelson that shoved him outside the top five into a share of 49th.

Ryan Moore (C) ... A tough call given that he's posted three top 10s in five starts here, including a T5 last year, but I'm hedging conservatively based on his recent play. Hasn't competed since THE PLAYERS, where he finished T33 for his third consecutive result outside the top 30. He also entered last year's Memorial with a poor, three-event stretch, but I always prefer him at the more classic tracks on TOUR. And plenty remain on the schedule.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Alex Cejka (C) ... Withdrew after one round at last week's Byron Nelson. It was his third WD of the year. But before duffer leaguers hop aboard, consider that he made the cut in both starts following his previous two withdrawals. Also owns a 4-for-5 record at the Memorial.

Graham DeLaet (B) ... Making his 2011 debut on the Nationwide Tour this week. Depending on how it goes, he just might tee it up at next week's St. Jude Classic. The Canadian has been sidelined since having back surgery on Jan. 3. He's fully exempt via last year's top 125 on the money list.

Joe Affrunti (C) ... In the field at the Nationwide Tour's Melwood Prince George's County Open. Would be his first start anywhere since the Valero Texas Open in mid-April due to rotator cuff tendinitis in his left shoulder. Withdrew after this feature published. No timetable for a return.

Bernhard Langer (n/a) ... In the field at the Champions Tour's Principal Charity Classic. Hasn't competed anywhere since mid-March due to surgery on his left thumb. Withdrew on Tuesday after playing nine holes in the pro-am. Flying to Germany on Wednesday to see a specialist.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Brian Gay (A) ... Withdrew on Tuesday. Hasn't played the event since 2001 and not a great fit at Muirfield Village anyway.

Andres Romero (B) ... Ended a five-week stretch with missed cuts in both events in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

Tom Lehman (C) ... Teeing it up at the Principal Charity Classic on the Champions Tour instead.

Jose Maria Olazabal (B) ... Also withdrew from last week's BMW PGA Championship after seven holes. He was 5-over at the time.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.