Fantasy Insider: Analysis for THE PLAYERS Championship

In Monday's Power Rankings, I mentioned that last year's scoring average (71.73) was the first under-par split here since 1996. It's likely an anomaly, as all indications suggest that TPC Sawgrass will return to its customary average north of 72.

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THE PLAYERS

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Inside the Course
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Choosing Sides

In an article for The Florida Times-Union on Sunday, TPC Sawgrass superintendent Tom Vlach cited differences in the variables leading up to last year's edition, which followed a cool spring, and this year's improved weather, which, he said, "helped a lot." Last year's rough was limited to 2-1/2 inches.

The players will be standing in three inches of the taller grass this week. No greens required re-sodding or re-plugging this year. All 18 needed the work in 2010. Vlach added that additional challenges in the form of pine straw and native grasses were added in spots at the sixth and 12th holes, while grass has been allowed to grow in areas around the greens at five other holes.

These changes further emphasize the premium on hitting greens in regulation and scrambling. Of course, there are no statistics to measure a man's mettle, which is always tested at the par-3 17th hole.

It just may explain why Tim Clark, Ben Crane and Henrik Stenson are the only three in the field with multiple top-10s here in the last three years. That dynamic also underscores why this is one of the most difficult fields to handicap all year.

Power Rankings Plus

11. J.B. Holmes ... Nine events into his season, he's cashed in all of them, and he hit seven figures in earnings with a T9 at Quail Hollow, his third top 10 of the year. Owns three top 20s in five starts here and sits 38th on TOUR in greens hit.

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12. Jim Furyk ... Since his two-month slump ended, he enters with five consecutive top-25s in tow. Consider it Furyk 2.0, and we'll take it. He's also cashed in five straight PLAYERS -- two for top fives -- and ranks 37th on TOUR in greens in regulation and 17th in scrambling.

13. Lucas Glover ... With a simple correction in his set-up while putting, he went ahead and led the field in putting en route to victory at Quail Hollow, and now leads the TOUR in strokes gained with his flat stick. Ended an 0-for-4 skid at TPC Sawgrass that included eight rounds over par with a solo third last year that featured nothing higher than a 70.

14. Fredrik Jacobson ... Rock-solid rank-and-filer that can spell the studs for you at this venue. Recorded a career-best T10 last year in what was his seventh appearance. Six top-25s in 12 starts this year. Currently 19th on TOUR in scrambling and 14th in adjusted scoring average.

15. Steve Marino ... A nice fit on paper, given that he's 31st on TOUR in greens hit and 60th in scrambling. Zero top-30s here in four starts, but he's cashed in his last two, and the broad-stroke formula for success at TPC Sawgrass includes years of experience. Moreover, he's already wedged his way into a few conversations this year to secure his first PGA TOUR victory.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Luke Donald (1); Phil Mickelson (4); Matt Kuchar (9); Jim Furyk (12); Lucas Glover (13); Steve Marino (15)

Group B ... Hunter Mahan (2); Ben Crane (3); Bill Haas (5); Kevin Na (6); Steve Stricker (10)

Group C ... Adam Scott (7); Brandt Snedeker (8); J.B. Holmes (11); Fredrik Jacobson (14)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Sergio Garcia (C) ... He's cashed in nine of 11 starts, including his memorable victory over Paul Goydos in 2008. If he qualified for the stats rankings -- he's logged just 16 rounds this year -- he'd sit 12th in total driving and 14th in ball-striking, which makes him a threat again this week. And despite his struggles, he's missed only eight cuts in his last 96 starts on the PGA TOUR.

Ian Poulter (B) ... Has cashed here five times, including a solo second in 2009. Tracking perfectly, as this is his eighth career appearance.

Vijay Singh (B) ... Few -- if any -- are more familiar with TPC Sawgrass than this guy. While he's never won here, it's a home game and he's coming off an impressive T9 at Quail Hollow, where he drove the ball wonderfully (T2 in fairways) and ranked T10 in greens hit. Worth a look in the Yahoo! game.

Pat Perez (B) ... Despite his closing 75 at Quail Hollow, he remains locked in as a recent resource, with three top-six paydays in his last four outings. He's 61st in scrambling and 31st in the all-around. Also tied for third here in 2006.

Chris Couch (C) ... Has cashed in all eight starts this year, with four top 15s. Ranks 53rd on TOUR in greens, 32nd in scrambling, 11th in adjusted scoring average and eight in the all-around. Placed T17 here last year, with two eagles and 17 birdies.

Kenny Perry (B) ... His fantasy value rises with the temperature, he's posted a pair of top fives recently on the Champions Tour and he's finished inside the top 25 here in each of the last three years. Yahoo! gamers that invest may want to consider bailing in the final round, however, given that he's shot 81, 74 and 73 in his final 18 holes since 2008.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Bubba Watson (B) ... What he says and what he does makes for tricky, if not impossible, prognostications. Case in point: his playoff victory at TPC Louisiana, which he said didn't suit his eye. On Tuesday, he revealed that he won't play a practice round at TPC Sawgrass and said, "The golf course is too hard for me. I don't like the look off the tee. ... I don't think I've played it that well." For the record, he's 1-for-4 with one sub-71 round (67, opening round, 2009).

Nick Watney (A) ... He leads the PGA TOUR in the all-around ranking, which includes sitting 23rd in greens hit. He's also 13th in scrambling, but he's been struggling lately with his putter. He may be able to hide it a bit this week, but go ahead and leave him alone while he's cool.

Sean O'Hair (B) ... Considerable activity in his camp, as he's parted ways with his caddie and swing coach in recent weeks. Also arrives at TPC Sawgrass having missed each of his last five cuts.

Charles Howell III (C) ... Top 25s in half of his 14 starts this year, and he's currently 26th on TOUR in greens and 39th in scrambling, but he's missed five of nine cuts here, and has just one top-50 finish, that a T32 eight years ago.

Stuart Appleby (B) ... After starting 2011 with four top 15s in seven events, he's cashed for a T57 (Transitions) and missed his last five cuts. His opening 68 at Quail Hollow last week is his only round under par of his last eight.

Brian Gay (A) ... Something will have to give this week. He's cashed in all but one of 11 starts this year, including six top 25s, but he's just 4-for-9 at TPC Sawgrass, with zero top 30s. Obviously, you know where I stand.

Matteo Manassero (C) ... Putting his youth into some perspective, consider that Vijay Singh will turn 50 before the Italian phenom hits 20. Even though Manassero is shaping up as a fantasy cornerstone long-term, he's a first-timer this week. Even so, I'm compelled to offer a disclaimer that a 20-year-young Rory McIlroy arrived at Quail Hollow last year with similar cachet, albeit with two years on Manassero, who turned 18 on April 19, yet already has a pair of European Tour victories.

Henrik Stenson (C) ... Classic trap for course history buffs, who will overlook the Swede's ongoing slide. Zero top 25s anywhere in his last 10 starts.

Shaun Micheel (B) ... Continues to battle an inner-ear disorder. Hasn't cashed in his last three starts, and hasn't broken par in his last 14 rounds

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Tim Clark (B) ... The defending champ continues to nurse pain in his right elbow that still hasn't been officially diagnosed. This is his first start since missing the cut at the Masters, and just his fourth all year.

Tiger Woods (A) ... Opted not to play last week's stop at Wells Fargo due to a mild sprain in his left knee and strain to his left Achilles' tendon. Even if he had played and was otherwise healthy, he'd have landed in the Danger category this week on record alone. While he won here in 2001, his only top 20 in his last five appearances was a share of eighth in 2009. This is one of the best weeks of the year for Yahoo! gamers to keep him holstered.

Angel Cabrera (B) ... Underwent surgery on May 3 to repair a small tear and infection in his lower digestive system, and then withdrew from the Wells Fargo. Returned home on Friday, with the intent to arrive at TPC Sawgrass Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, according to GolfDigest.com.

Geoff Ogilvy (A) ... Withdrew prior to the Wells Fargo Championship to rest a sore left shoulder. He cited "wear and tear" on his Twitter page, so he's a sleeper given that he's had three weeks off.

Matt Bettencourt (C) ... Withdrew after 29 holes in Charlotte due to allergy-related headaches. It's his second WD in his last five starts, but the first one at Bay Hill was due to his battle with bursitis in his right elbow.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

None yet. Kevin Chappell is the first alternate.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.