Fantasy Insider: Analysis for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

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Feb. 8, 2011
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist

If you play the Yahoo! game, then do yourself a favor and spend time scheduling a rotation of starters for the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club. It's the only par 70 of the trio of tracks employed this week. Then, further whittle your options to the morning wave. All 54 greens are Poa annua grass, which gets bumpier as the day draws on. So, the bull's-eye is a combination of golfers I'm endorsing in the morning wave on the Shore Course. I'll be posting this week's rotation on my Twitter page after tee times are released on Tuesday afternoon. (Last year, the Shore Course followed Pebble Beach.)

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With the pro-am in play, expect accessible hole locations for the first three rounds, so there is no need to overthink bypassing the Shore Course. Also, this is your final opportunity of the year to capitalize on the multiple-course setup. The AT&T is the third of four tournaments on the schedule that use more than one venue, but the fourth -- Children's Miracle Network Classic -- sits in the Fall Series. The Yahoo! game ends with THE TOUR Championship one month prior.

Before we dive into the field, I've added qualifiers for the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship and World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational here. Those eligible for THE PLAYERS will be added next week.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Phil Mickelson ... Ranked 40th or worse in every noteworthy stat at TPC Scottsdale, where he finished T29 and didn't break par in his final two rounds. Obviously, he has a tremendous track record at Pebble Beach (three victories, all-time money leader at the event), but he's held to a higher standard. This is to say that you could make an argument that he should sit No. 1 or 2 in the Power Rankings for every event he enters. His spot here keeps with the reality of the current state of his game.

12. Jim Furyk ... First start since a surprising missed cut at the Sony Open. Has missed just one cut in 16 appearances here, but hasn't cracked the top 30 in his last two.

13. D.A. Points ... Trending nicely, with a solo fifth at Torrey Pines and a T18 at TPC Scottsdale. Enters with a string of seven sub-70 rounds going. Ranks 10th in bogey avoidance. His 1-for-4 record in this event should scare off some of your competition, but he did post a T14 in 2008.

14. Brendon de Jonge ... He's picked up right where he left off in 2010. Three top 25s in as many starts this year. Currently 26th in greens hit and 11th in the all-around.

15. Gary Woodland ... With a top five in Scottsdale, where he posted four rounds in the 60s, he proved that his playoff loss at the Bob Hope Classic was a harbinger, not a fluke. He should have a dandy good time chasing his ball on the par 5s this week. His swing is gorgeous and his confidence has never been higher.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

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  • Group A ... Nick Watney (1); Dustin Johnson (2); Geoff Ogilvy (4); Phil Mickelson (11); Jim Furyk (12)

    Group B ... Tim Clark (5); Vijay Singh (6); Bo Van Pelt (9); Tom Gillis (10); D.A. Points (13); Brendon de Jonge (14)

    Group C ... J.B. Holmes (3); Brandt Snedeker (7); Mark Wilson (8); Gary Woodland (15)

    Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

    Padraig Harrington (A) ... The only headline he's earned this year was the disqualification in Abu Dhabi. This is his first start of 2011 in the U.S. Owns a pair of top 20s in four starts here, including a T16 last year.

    David Duval (C) ... Enters on the heels of a pair of top 25s and nine consecutive rounds under par, including five straight sub-70 at the Bob Hope Classic. The value here is his consistency, something not associated with him for some time. Also a three-time runner-up at this event, including last year.

    Sean O'Hair (B) ... Because he hasn't missed consecutive cuts in two and a half years, and he's fared relatively well at this event -- under par in each of his last seven rounds -- it's time to renew your focus on him.

    Matt Bettencourt (C) ... The only golfer on TOUR to start in all six events of 2011. Coming off a T29 in Scottsdale. Currently ranks 14th in birdies or better on par 5s; he's finished inside the top 20 in that stat in his first two seasons on the PGA TOUR. Attended junior college in nearby Modesto.

    Nate Smith (C) ... Lives on the other side of Monterey Bay in Santa Cruz, and he's active in the First Tee of Monterey. Local knowledge and resilience to Poa annua are valuable assets.

    John Mallinger (C) ... Missed the cut by two in Scottsdale with a double bogey on his 36th hole, but he won the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational last year. The California native has also cashed in all four starts here, including a pair of third-place paydays (2007, 2008).

    Danger (Yahoo! Group)

    Jason Dufner (C) ... Time to bail on the runner-up from the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Has just one round in the 60s at this event, and zero top 50s in four appearances. However, I'm impressed that he overcame his admitted weakness of adjusting to disjointed events due to weather. Noted.

    Yahoo! lineup
    Starters:
    Group A: Nick Watney
    Group B: Tim Clark; D.A. Points
    Group C: J.B. Holmes
    Bench:
    Group A: Dustin Johnson
    Group B: Vijay Singh, Bo Van Pelt
    Group C: Brandt Snedeker
    Yahoo! stats:
    772 points; 17,009th place
    One and done:
    Dustin Johnson
    2011 earnings: $430,000.00
    Duffer:
    Roland Thatcher
    2011 earnings: $177,320.00

    D.J. Trahan (B) ... Virtually nothing to show from his first three starts of the year. While he ranked eighth on TOUR last year in birdies or better on par 5s, he's a classic trap this week. He's posted top 10s in his last two starts here, but he entered the Bob Hope Classic and Waste Management Phoenix Open with similarly glowing records, and failed to execute. Leave him be for now.

    Robert Garrigus (C) ... His strength in hitting greens and scoring on par 5s should benefit him, but since the playoff loss at Kapalua, he's struggled out of the gate and has missed three cuts in as many starts. A T39 in 2009 is his best finish among three paydays in four starts here.

    Steve Marino (A) ... Ranked T3 in greens hit en route to a fourth-place payday here last year. However, he's disappeared since sharing runner-up honors at the Sony Open a month ago.

    Roland Thatcher (C) ... Not since the 2004 Reno-Tahoe Open has he made any hay on Poa annua. Has missed the cut in all five appearances here.

    Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

    Tim Petrovic (B) ... Had to withdraw after 27 holes in Scottsdale due to an illness. Played his final nine there in 7-over 42.

    Rocco Mediate (C) ... Called it quits with four holes remaining in his second round of the WMPO due to an unspecified injury, prompting eventual champ and Green Bay Packers' fan, Mark Wilson, to quip, "He said something in his arm hurt but I think he was just a little bit worried about the [Pittsburgh] Steelers." Indeed, Mediate's concern was realized.

    Mark Brooks (C) ... Back in action for the first time since pulling out of the Bob Hope Classic after three rounds for an unknown cause. Winner of the 2009 edition of the Callaway Golf Pebble Beach Invitational.

    Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

    Chris Couch (C) ... Posted his second top 10 of the year in Scottsdale in what was his third consecutive start of 2011. Hasn't played four straight weeks since this time last year.

    Cameron Beckman (C) ... A tie for 13th was his third top 25 of the year, one short of his total of 2010. Will be defending at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in two weeks.

    Nathan Green (C) ... Finally got off the schneid with a T57 at the WMPO -- his first payday in four starts this year -- but he finished outside the top 65 at the event in greens hit and putting. He had one eagle, but no one had fewer birdies.

    Course averages
    SHORE COURSE at MPCC (par 70; 6,838 yards)
    Round 1 68.981
    Round 2 68.750
    Round 3 69.118
    Overall 68.948
    SPYGLASS HILL (par 72; 6,953 yards)
    Round 1 71.519
    Round 2 71.635
    Round 3 71.654
    Overall 71.603
    PEBBLE BEACH (par 72; 6,816 yards)
    Round 1 70.885
    Round 2 70.923
    Round 3 70.692
    Round 4 73.217
    Overall 71.564
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