Fantasy: Nationwide Tour graduate projections

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The Nationwide Tour's Class of 2011 just might be the most interesting in its 22-year history. From its youngest graduate, Danny Lee, 21, to its oldest, Gavin Coles, 43; from two-time heart transplant recipient, Erik Compton, to Navy veteran and last man inside the bubble, Billy Hurley III, the storylines are all over the place.

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A second broad stroke is necessary for cult hero, Ted Potter, Jr., and the long-hitting Jason Kokrak, who has fantasy gamers salivating. Can't omit the seemingly late-bloomer, Jonas Blixt, and the dynamic Matt Every, or veterans Mathew Goggin, Ken Duke and Daniel Chopra. And no one did more in less time than John Mallinger, who deserves more than this unintentional honorable mention.

This feature breaks down everything you need to know about each graduate for full-season leagues and other formats. Money list projections assume that none will improve his number at q-school but special notes are included on a few just in case. Guys near the top of the list and those that have been PGA TOUR members in the past are given slightly higher value before analysis if for no other reason than your competition will likely already have some experience with them. Meanwhile, golfers near the bottom, especially the rookies, are facing the steepest climb in 2012. They have a position at the starting line but they'll need a hot West Coast Swing to keep pace or spend the better portion of the following three months waiting to wiggle into fields. This is all explained within.

There are 13 rookies in all, one short of the record set just last year. The average age of all 25 grads (as of Jan. 1, 2012) will be 31.12. That's roughly in the middle of the trend as compared to recent years, but it's exactly two years older than last year's mean. Twelve are in their 20s, 10 are in their 30s and three are in their 40s.

J.J. Killeen, who just turned 30, is the first money leader who wasn't the youngest graduate since 2008 (Matt Bettencourt). Michael Sim (2009) and Jamie Lovemark (2010) turned that trick in the last two years.

Four grads from the class of 2010 won on the PGA TOUR this year, including two-time winner and PGA champion, Keegan Bradley. Another five finished inside the top 125 on the money list. And two others secured conditional status.

In the player capsules below, "Rob's Riff" includes my opinion, sometimes pointed, on where fantasy gamers need to position themselves accordingly. Remember, my goal is to put you in the position of making an intelligent decision with conviction, even if you disagree. The clarity will help with your direction and philosophy as a fantasy owner. Ages listed are as of Jan. 1, 2012. Official World Golf Rankings are as of Oct. 31, 2011.

J.J. Killeen • Rookie • 30 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 1 Official World Golf Ranking: 203

2011 highlights: After slipping from the top spot in earnings once, he regained it at the conclusion of the Mylan Classic and held on for the final seven events. Played in all but one of the 26 tournaments, posting consecutive victories midseason, both with 22-under 262s. Four other top fives. Led the circuit in putting and birdie-or-better percentage.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: In the last 11 years, three money leaders off the Nationwide Tour have failed to retain their PGA TOUR cards immediately after graduating. Two were injured and given medical extensions (Patrick Moore, Jimmy Walker). The other was Richard Johnson, who is now a golf coach at the University of Central Arkansas. So, Killeen has the law of averages in his favor. He's exempt from the reshuffle and can schedule THE PLAYERS for finishing first in earnings. He's also approaching his competitive prime. Perhaps most impressive is that after three years of missing 43 of 85 cuts, he missed only four this year. He's not getting much early love as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate, but he should.

Ted Potter, Jr. • Rookie • 28 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 2 Official World Golf Ranking: 164

2011 highlights: Monday qualified on the number at the South Georgia Classic at the end of April, went on to win the tournament by three and didn't look back. Later won again in a playoff at the Soboba Golf Classic in September. Six top 10s in 18 starts. Led the tour in the all-around ranking. Prior to all of that, he recorded four victories on the Hooters Tour in a 39-day span ending on March 13.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Look for the lefty to win over legions of fans for all kinds of reasons, but he might be more fun to observe than to own. As a 20-year-old on the Nationwide Tour in 2004, he missed the cut in all of his 24 starts. In 2007, he went 3-for-20. Arguably the most aggressive graduate, that style will play into his favor at a few PGA TOUR stops in 2012, but he'll take the expected lumps like all rookies. My projection is low due to his sudden rise and my tendency to be conservative. However, I love that this East Coast native won on Poa annua grass at the Soboba. And of all of the graduates, his world ranking is the best.

Mathew Goggin • 37 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 3 Official World Golf Ranking: 208

2011 highlights: Won the first event of the year in Panama. Won again in Wichita in June. Tacked on another four top 10s. Never ranked lower than his season-ending third in earnings.
PGA TOUR experience: More starts (252) than any other graduate. Over $7 million in earnings. Two-time runner-up. Paired with Tom Watson in the final round of the 2009 British Open at Turnberry.
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: This is easy. He's solved his equipment issues that led to a total loss of confidence. Also overcame a bad back that bugged him on the PGA TOUR in late 2009. Unlikely to win any putting contests, but he'll be a set-and-forget kind of investment. Consider his return to the Nationwide Tour as an opportunity to reset. He capitalized.

Jason Kokrak • Rookie • 26 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 4 Official World Golf Ranking: 188

2011 highlights: Won twice in 16 starts. Shared 36-hole lead and held the outright 54-hole lead at the Nationwide Tour Championship before settling for a share of fifth place.
PGA TOUR experience: Two starts. Played the 2007 U.S. Open at Oakmont as an amateur and missed the cut by six strokes. Four-spotted for the Transitions Championship in March, and then missed the cut by five.
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Born in Ontario, Canada but calls Ohio home. Owns the new-age formula for success at the game's highest level; that is, power and precision. He led the Nationwide Tour in distance of the tee, ranked 17th in greens hit and second in birdie average. He's the sexiest fantasy pick of this litter not named Danny Lee, so there's no chance that Kokrak slides in any draft, but veteran gamers are more likely to take a pass for more proven talent. Regardless, he'll make an impact and should be a seriously fun own.

Jonas Blixt • Rookie • 27 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 5 Official World Golf Ranking: 226

2011 highlights: Highest of the non-winners in earnings. Posted five top fives (including three runner-up finishes) in his final 10 starts. Ranked second on the Tour in putting, no surprise for a native of Sweden.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: The former first-team All-American at Florida State credits his sudden flourish to an improved address at the ball. "I kind of studied some of the guys on the PGA TOUR and that really helped my setup," Blixt told PGATOUR.COM's John Dell in August. Blixt was referring to Adam Scott and Rory McIlroy. The homework resulted in steady increases in fairways and greens hit. His short game is sublime and he owns the pedigree. He's also recently moved to Jacksonville Beach, Fla. so he can play out of TPC Sawgrass. I'm bullish, banking on an extension of his second-half form.

Danny Lee • Rookie • 21 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 6 Official World Golf Ranking: 182

2011 highlights: Led the Tour with nine top 10s (in 18 starts), five of which were top fives including a playoff victory at the WNB Golf Classic. Also led the Tour in scoring average, birdie average, birdies or better on par 4s and bounce backs.
PGA TOUR experience: Since turning pro in 2009, he's 6-for-13 with one top 10. Earned $406K in 2009 as a non-member.
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: The whale in your draft from this class seems destined for big, big things. Emerged victorious at the 2008 U.S. Amateur, becoming the youngest ever to win the title (circa 1895). Seven months later, when he won the 2009 Johnnie Walker Classic in Australia (as an amateur), he became the youngest champion in European Tour history (circa 1972). (Both records for precocity have since been bettered, but by different golfers.) That he led the Nationwide Tour's bounce-back stat this year at such a young age is a testament to his dexterity.

Ken Duke • 42 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 7 Official World Golf Ranking: 279

2011 highlights: Won the Nationwide Tour Championship by three strokes. Also posted a T2 and T3 in 24 starts.
PGA TOUR experience: Four times a card-carrying member (2004, 2007-09). Finished 28th on the money list in 2008. Three runner-up finishes in 138 starts.
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Until his victory at the season finale, he hadn't ranked inside the top 30 in earnings all year. The money leader on the Nationwide Tour in 2006 cited a commitment to fitness for a renewed outlook following a disappointing 2009 on the PGA TOUR. While this is encouraging, limit your investment to the long-term here. He'll likely snipe one or two top 10s and just might lead the TOUR in starts, but in our world, he's complementary value at best.

Scott Brown • Rookie • 28 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 8 Official World Golf Ranking: 295

2011 highlights: Played in all 26 events. No wins but two seconds, including at the Nationwide Tour Championship. Also posted three thirds, including the weather-shortened, 36-hole Bogota Open. Only meaningful stats in which he ranked inside the top 25 were earnings and top 10s, which proves that his sum is greater than any part.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Born in Augusta, Ga. Ranked inside the top 25 in earnings following the last 18 events, but also missed as many cuts as he made for the year. And no experience at the next level. What's intriguing is how he manufactured a series of flashes in the absence of a jump-off-the-page split. I'd be somewhat inclined to endorse if his rank in greens in regulation was the best instead of the worst (89th) of the eight stats used to calculate the all-around.

Gary Christian • Rookie • 40 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 9 Official World Golf Ranking: 281

2011 highlights: Won the Mylan Classic in early September to secure his card. (The Mylan was the event in which Rahil Gangjee aced a par-4. It was also Christian's second Nationwide Tour victory in the state of Pennsylvania, plucking his breakthrough in 2009.) Also shared second place at the Cox Classic a month previous. He ranked second in both the all-around and scrambling, and finished fifth on Tour in both fairways hit and scoring average.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Forty-year-old rookies aren't desirable fantasy commodities unless we're talking about Robert Karlsson, who played 16 of his 18 events as a 41-year-old this year. Christian missed only three cuts but he posted only three top 10s. Simply put, the Englishman doesn't own enough cachet to outshine his fellow graduates. He's the everyman success story for sure, but not worth the flier.

Miguel Carballo • Rookie • 32 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 10 Official World Golf Ranking: 333

2011 highlights: Won the Children's Hospital Classic in October. Lost in a playoff at the Soboba Golf Classic two weeks prior. Posted all four of his top 10s in his final 10 starts.
PGA TOUR experience: None
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: While he owned a European Tour card in 2006, he may be best known for being the last golfer to win in his first start on the Nationwide Tour. He won the Movistar Panama Championship in 2007, and then went 122 starts before picking up his second this October. He sat 60th on the money list until his P2 at the Soboba. He's made strides with his putting but misses too many fairways. With no experience on the PGA TOUR, it could be a long season for the Argentine unless he cherry-picks something special just as fellow South American and wayward driver, Jhonattan Vegas, achieved early in his rookie season at the Humana Challenge.

Troy Kelly • 33 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 11 Official World Golf Ranking: 325

2011 highlights: Finished solo second in his third start on May 8 but earned first-place money since champion Russell Henley was an amateur. Kelly retained a position inside the top 10 in earnings until the finale. Posted consecutive top threes in mid-June. Failed to crack a top 40 in his final seven starts.
PGA TOUR experience: As a rookie via q-school in 2009, went 3-for-17 and finished 238th on the money list. Zero top 50s of four cuts made in 19 career starts.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Started the year on a medical extension after having his arthritic left hip replaced in September 2010. A T24 at the South Georgia Classic exempt him into the Stadion Classic the following week where he pocketed $99K that Henley couldn't. It's a superb comeback story and Kelly has an axe to grind for his forgettable first go-around on the PGA TOUR but his conclusion this year is concerning.

Russell Knox • Rookie • 26 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 12 Official World Golf Ranking: 300

2011 highlights: Parlayed a successful stint at Monday qualifying for the Fresh Express Classic into a co-runner-up at the event. Later won the Chiquita Classic. Missed only three of 20 cuts.
PGA TOUR experience: One start. Four-spotted for the Transitions Championship in March, but missed the cut by four strokes.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Extremely proficient tee to green but won't overpower a course. Rookies with virtually no experience on the PGA TOUR that have to pick their spots have extremely little fantasy value. And the Scot is only 26 years young. He might need a perfect storm of variables to contend in a given week.

Erik Compton • Rookie • 32 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 13 Official World Golf Ranking: 278

2011 highlights: Opened with a T4 in Panama. Posted another T4 in his third start. Won the Mexico Open in June. Ranked no lower than 15th on the money list all year.
PGA TOUR experience: As a professional, he's made 18 of 30 cuts but has just one top 25 (T25, 2011 Northern Trust Open).
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Obviously, he's one of the greatest stories in the history of the game, having undergone two heart transplants and earning his way onto the PGA TOUR. From a purely X's-and-O's standpoint, the concern has been how he holds up for four straight days of competition. He all but crushed that knock with a closing 65 to win in come-from-behind fashion in Mexico. En route to the lowest round of the day (Roberto Castro also shot 65), Compton buried eight birdies. His final-round scoring average for the year was 69.86, which was just a click higher than his overall. While he has some experience on the PGA TOUR, look for him to take an occasional rest. He'll also likely need a red-hot week with his putter to populate a leaderboard. Doesn't offer much from tee to green but you can't overlook the odds he's already overcome.

John Mallinger • 32 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 14 Official World Golf Ranking: 210

2011 highlights: Made only nine starts. Matched the Nationwide Tour record with six consecutive top 10s (over a five-month period).
PGA TOUR experience: Fully exempt from 2007-10. Conditional status in 2011. Has 13 top 10s in 133 career starts. Lost in a playoff at the final edition of the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee (2009).
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: While he didn't find a groove on the PGA TOUR this year, he must be reintroduced in all fantasy circles given his torrid stretch en route to regaining his fully-exempt status. He dealt with equipment issues in early 2010 before recovering late. Always a streaky sort, he fits well in any format.

Kyle Thompson • 32 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 15 Official World Golf Ranking: 274

2011 highlights: Finished first, second and T4 in consecutive starts in June.
PGA TOUR experience: Rookie in 2008 (via the Nationwide Tour). He's a career 10-for-31. Best finish is a T15 at the 2009 Puerto Rico Open.
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: Given that he earned over 81 percent of his 2011 haul in a three-week period and didn't post a top 20 in his ensuing 11 starts to end the year, it's fair to say that I'm hedging high on my projection. However, I tend to have a soft side -- at least temporarily -- for relatively new first-time fathers in their prime. His daughter is two years of age and his son was born in August. Thompson has every reason to believe that he's in a tremendous place in his life, and he's now earned the opportunity to deal with some unfinished business after a dreadful first go at the PGA TOUR in 2008. If he's available in the last round of your draft, take the plunge.

Kyle Reifers • 28 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 16 Official World Golf Ranking: 458

2011 highlights: Last of three top 10s occurred at the Nationwide Children's Hospital Invitational in July where he shared second place but pocketed first-place earnings since winner Harris English and co-runner-up John Peterson were amateurs at the time.
PGA TOUR experience: Rookie in 2007. Went 9-for-27 with two top 25s and finished 181st on the money list.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Veteran gamers may remember him dusting the field with a closing 61 in Chattanooga in 2006 to win his first start on the Nationwide Tour. (It remains his only victory on the circuit in 122 career starts.) He'd need q-school that fall to earn the bump up to the PGA TOUR, but the seed was planted to follow along. This year, he had nearly as many top 25s (nine) as he did missed cuts (11), so he'll be a better long-term own if you're so inclined. Also owns the worst world ranking of his class.

Gavin Coles • 43 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 17 Official World Golf Ranking: 258

2011 highlights: Won the Winn-Dixie Jacksonville Open, the penultimate event on the schedule. It vaulted him 30 spots on the money list to 15th at the time. It was one of four top 10s.
PGA TOUR experience: Thrice fully exempt via the Nationwide Tour (2003, 2005, 2007). Also had conditional status in 2008. He's made 50 of 99 cuts with four top 10s and over $2.5 million in earnings.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Gamers have enough experience with him in recent years to know better. That he missed a whopping 15 of 24 cuts on the Nationwide Tour this year is concerning although 12 were consecutive in the first half of his season. Finished outside the top 100 in greens in regulation, birdie average, the all-around, ball-striking and birdies or better on both par 4s and par 5s. Only worth a short-term bite on tight tracks if he's shown some form upon arrival.

Matt Every • 28 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 18 Official World Golf Ranking: 283

2011 highlights: Four top sixes including a solo second in his second start. Didn't rank lower than 29th in earnings all year. Made 17 of 20 cuts. Led the circuit in pre-cut scoring average.
PGA TOUR experience: Rookie in 2010. Limited to 18 starts due to a broken finger. Made 12 of 18 cuts and finished 160th on the money list.
2012 money list projection: Top 125
Rob's Riff: He started 2011 with a Minor Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR but fell $1,760 short of securing conditional status. That just might have been the best thing for him as he was then able to pour his entire year into one goal. A return to the game's top tier seemed inevitable. Own with confidence. It's still hard to believe that he was a walk-on at the University of Florida, and then went on to be a three-time, first-team All-American for the Gators.

Daniel Chopra • 38 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 19 Official World Golf Ranking: 362

2011 highlights: Won the weather-shortened, 54-hole Fresh Express Classic with a blistering 61 in the third round. Fell as far as 25th in earnings with three events to go, but posted a pair of top 10s down the stretch.
PGA TOUR experience: Two-time winner. Earnings of $8.1 million.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: All but disappeared for the majority of the season until reemerging late. Ranked outside the top 110 in fairways and greens, instead diverting all the pressure on his greenside game and putting, which is nothing new to fantasy gamers.

Steve Wheatcroft • 33 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 20 Official World Golf Ranking: 338

2011 highlights: En route to a Nationwide Tour record 12-stroke margin of victory at the Melwood Prince George's County Open, he recorded a bogey-free, 11-under 60 in the second round during which he hit 12 greens a needed only 19 putts. Retained position in the top 25 on the money list thereafter.
PGA TOUR experience: Two-time member. As a q-school grad and rookie in 2007, finished 206th in earnings. As a Nationwide Tour grad in 2010, placed 166th on the money list. Has one top 10 in 56 career starts (T3, 2010 Puerto Rico Open).
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Simply, even if he improves his number at q-school, he'll need to start the season better than his two previous opportunities. He's an aggregate 2-for-10 on the West Coast Swing with no top-45 finishes. You might as well see what happens for the first two months before you consider reserving roster space.

Garth Mulroy • 33 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 21 Official World Golf Ranking: 276

2011 highlights: Won in a playoff at the BMW Charity Pro-Am in May. After eventually slipping to 26th on the money list, he closed out the season with four consecutive top 25s.
|PGA TOUR experience: Rookie in 2010 (via the Nationwide Tour). Limited to 19 starts due to a severe sprain in his right ankle. Burned through four starts on a Minor Medical Extension this year, falling well short of retaining any status. Overall, he has one top 10 in 24 starts (T6, 2010 Texas Open).
2012 money list projection: 126-150
Rob's Riff: The South African ranked 26th in distance off the tee and 25th in both greens hit and putting on the Nationwide Tour in 2011. That would translate exceptionally well on the PGA TOUR. Gamers have to like long hitters with some experience, so he's a bit of a sleeper.

Mark Anderson • Rookie • 25 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 22 Official World Golf Ranking: 418

2011 highlights: Saved two of his four top 10s for the final two full-field events, rising from 53rd to 19th in earnings.
PGA TOUR experience: Three starts, all at The Heritage. Missed the cut as an amateur in 2009 and again as a pro this past April. Settled for a T81/MDF at the 2010 edition.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: As a rule, rookies in their mid-20s with but a taste of the PGA TOUR this deep in the reshuffle are bad investments. Even if he should improve his number at q-school, allow him to navigate the West Coast Swing alone.

Roberto Castro • Rookie • 26 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 23 Official World Golf Ranking: 359

2011 highlights: Teed it up in all but one event, posting a pair of T4s, a pair of T8s and nine other top 25s. Retained a position from 15th through 24th on the money list following the last 16 tournaments.
PGA TOUR experience: One start. Missed the cut at the final edition of the AT&T Classic in 2008.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Winner of the Byron Nelson Award in 2007 while at Georgia Tech, the most recent recipient (of 10) to earn a PGA TOUR card. This year, he ranked fourth in both total driving -- his accuracy was better than his distance -- and greens in regulation. Also finished second in final-round scoring average in 16 rounds. Just as with Anderson above, I'd be more intrigued if Castro improved his number at q-school so we'd see him more and for him to find a competitive slot. Otherwise, pass.

Martin Flores • 29 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 24 Official World Golf Ranking: 439

2011 highlights: Four top 10s highlighted by a co-runner-up at the Rex Hospital Open in June. He moved from 60th to 24th on the money list that week and remained inside the top 25 for the remainder of the season, climbing as high as 14th once.
PGA TOUR experience: Rookie in 2010 (via q-school). Went 11-for-26 with one top 10 (T10, Reno-Tahoe) and finished 175th on the money list.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Finished 14th in the all-around, a split that was weighed down by a poor rank in accuracy off the tee. That doesn't concern me given he averaged over 307 yards in distance. What is reason for pause is where he'd begin in the reshuffle without an improvement at q-school. In 2010, he started seventh in the pecking order, and then made his first four cuts to essentially secure a full schedule until fields opened in May when graduates don't have to worry about when their next start will occur. Guys in the depths of the reshuffle could be limited to three starts on the West Coast Swing. That simply isn't fantasy friendly.

Billy Hurley III • Rookie • 29 Rank on Nationwide Tour money list: 25 Official World Golf Ranking: 344

2011 highlights: Started 1-for-6 before kicking off his summer with consecutive top fives. Chalked up another six top 20s, including at the season finale to remain 25th on the money list. Ranked no higher than 19th at any time.
PGA TOUR experience: Over four seasons dating back to 2006, he's 4-for-11 with zero top 40s.
2012 money list projection: 151+
Rob's Riff: Like Castro, Hurley is a former Byron Nelson Award winner (2004), but he's also arguably the wildcard sleeper of the graduating class. As a popular benefactor of sponsor exemptions since turning pro due to his commitment to the U.S. Naval Academy, it really doesn't matter where he sits in the reshuffle, so he should hit 30 starts if he wants them. He'll put himself in position off the tee, but doesn't move it; only Gavin Coles hits it shorter on average among the 25 grads. But no matter who it is -- even a military veteran with mental toughness with which I can't relate -- I don't get that excited about a rookie that barely hangs on to the final spot.