Backspin: Simpson will be tough to beat for FedExCup

text size

And then there were 30.

That's what this season has boiled down to after Justin Rose's victory Sunday at the BMW Championship, which was vindicating on a lot of levels (I'll get to that later).

For those in the top five in the FedExCup standings, it's simple: Win The TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola and you win the FedExCup.

Webb Simpson, who has played better than anyone the last two months and is atop the standings as a result, will be the favorite next week at East Lake. But it will also be his first trip there.

So here's a look at five players who could win next week and what it would it mean:

Simpson: He didn't have a great weekend with rounds of 73-71 to finish fifth at Cog Hill, but Simpson has 10 top-10s this year, including two wins -- both of which have come in the last month. He also doesn't necessarily need to win at East Lake to win the FedExCup.

Luke Donald: He's the only guy on TOUR with more top-10s than Simpson (12). He also enters THE TOUR Championship playing well, with nine of his last 11 rounds in the 60s and with two straight finishes in the top four. At fourth in the standings, Donald also controls his own destiny. He was also the runner-up at East Lake last year.

Brandt Snedeker: He tied for third in two of his last three starts and has been good all year with seven top-10s, including a win. He's just outside the top five at sixth in the standings, which means he'll need help, but it's certainly not impossible.

Jason Day: Don't forget about Day. Even though he was a non-factor at the BMW, he's been good in the Playoffs with a tie for 13th at The Barclays and a tie for third at the Deutsche Bank Championship. At 10th in the standings, he'll need a lot of help though.

Nick Watney: He hasn't done much since The Barclays, where he closed with a 64 in the rain-shortened event to tie.

Stock up

Webb Simpson: With the exception of the PGA Championship, you have to go all the way back to THE PLAYERS to find the last time Simpson finished outside the top 16. And in his last four starts, he hasn't finished outside the top 10. Because of that, hes the favorite to win the FedExCup next week in Atlanta. FedExCup rank: 1 (1 last week) Luke Donald: Ho hum, just another top-10, Donald's 12th of the season. Say what you want about him having just one win on TOUR this year, but he recovered nicely from an opening 75 by making just three bogeys over the final three rounds, including none on Sunday. Because of that, Donald controls his own destiny. FedExCup rank: 4 (4 last week). Camilo Villegas: It wasnt enough to get Villegas to Atlanta, but something clearly clicked in his game over the past month. After just one top-10 the first eight months of the season, Villegas had three of them in his final four starts. Villegas was pounding his fist on a table after checking the standings. FedExCup rank: 33 (47 last week)

Stock down

Rory Sabbatini: Sabbatini, who began the week 26th in the FedExCup standings, shot 78-73 on the weekend at Cog Hill and was left out of the top 30 for East Lake. It wasn't just last week, though. Since May, Sabbatini had just one finish inside the top 30 on the PGA TOUR. FedExCup rank: 35 (26 last week). Phil Mickelson: Save for about five minutes, Mickelson has been a non-factor in the Playoffs with a tie for 43rd, a tie for 56th and a tie for 10th. He still has an outside chance to win the FedExCup, but what looked like it might be the summer of Phil never really materialized. FedExCup rank: 14 (10 last week). Tommy Gainey: Save for a third-place finish at the Wyndham Championship, Gainey struggled down the stretch with three missed cuts in his last five starts and a 69th-place finish at the BMW, where he shot a 74, two 77s and a 78. The end result? No trip to the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola. FedExCup rank: 62 (54 last week)

THE BACK NINE: 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

1. There are two things, often which go hand-in-hand, that have kept Justin Rose from winning more: Putting and the space between his ears. Rose has always been one of the game's better drivers and ball-strikers. Where he's struggled is once he got to the green. The fix, at least this week, was something simple. Rose's coach, Sean Foley, had him move his ball position back one ball. That led to Rose hitting the ball with a square clubface, as opposed to a closed one, and as a result he ranked fifth in putts per green in regulation. "He's one of those ultimate talents in the game," said Foley, who has worked with Rose since 2009. "Like many guys he gets in his own way too often. He knows he's a great player."

2. The other key for Rose was getting his swing "in plane," as Foley called it. "Coming down 18 those looked like two inspired swings," Foley said. "That was a bit of vindication [for him]." But to get there, you have to go back to the 17th, where Rose consciously told himself to seize the moment before chipping in for birdie.

"I said these are the moments where tournaments are won," Rose said. "It was an easy chip, it just needed committing to, just not wimping out, and it was just lovely to have that sort of dialogue with yourself and then see it play out in your favor, and it was just nice to have made the right decision and then executed it. That's a great lesson to learn that down the stretch; it does come down to one moment sometimes, and you just need to be ready for it."

3. FedExCup Winner(s) of the Week: Geoff Ogilvy did it again. Two weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Ogilvy one-putted his final two holes to sneak into the BMW Championship. This week, he needed a two-way tie for third or better to make it to Atlanta, and he did just that with a solo third by playing his last six holes in 2 under on Sunday. He also played his way onto the International Presidents Cup team in the process, which is equally important to Ogilvy since it will be played about 500 yards from where he grew up in Australia.

4. FedExCup Non-Winner(s) of the Week: No one played worse down the stretch than Bill Haas, who closed in 42 and tumbled from second into a tie for 16th. He's still 25th in the FedExCup standings so there is a silver lining, but he cost himself an automatic spot on the U.S. Presidents Cup team.

5. Stat of the Week I: Am I the only one dumbfounded by the fact that prior to Rose's victory on Sunday, a European player had never won a Playoffs event?

6. Stat of the Week II: 30. That's the number of points Martin Laird missed THE TOUR Championship by, despite making a 43-footer for birdie on the final hole Sunday. Bo Van Pelt is the last man in for a second straight year.

7. Tiger Woods fell to No. 49 in the Official World Golf Ranking, which is significant for one reason: He stayed in the top 50, which gets him into his own tournament, the Chevron World Challenge the beginning of December. Speaking of Woods, he's been practicing at Medalist near his new home in Jupiter. His health is reportedly much improved and we'll find out how much his game is in a few weeks when he tees it up at the Frys.com Open next month.

8. As for the story circulating last week that had Luke Donald saying the Tiger era is over, he never said it. I know because the original quote came from a Q&A with him a few weeks ago. What Donald did say was that it's going to be very hard for Tiger to get back to the level he was at. Then, in a separate question when asked if he thought we were entering a new era in golf, Donald said the following: "I think so. Even tough Tiger's only 35, there are a lot of young guys coming up -- Rory McIlroy and Keegan Bradley and a bunch of others. I would assume a new era is upon us. I'm not sure we'll see someone who dominated like Tiger, but maybe a bunch of people."

9. Jack Nicklaus doesn't think the Tiger era is over either and said in an interview with the Associated Press last week that he still thinks Woods can break his record for major championships, "if he gets the five inches between his ears squared out."

Forward Spin

You know the deal by now. If you're in the top five in the FedExCup standings, it's simple: Win and you win the FedExCup. Of those in that group, Dustin Johnson is the only one who heads to East Lake off a couple of down weeks and he doesn't exactly have a good track record there, with zero finishes in the top 20. Webb Simpson, as mentioned, will be the favorite, but he's never made it this far. One other player to keep an eye on: Nick Watney. He's played big in big events and he's played well there before with a tie for fourth last year and a tie for 13th the year before. He's also close enough to the top of the standings that he has a very good chance of hoisting the big trophy and cashing an even bigger check.

Kodak Challenge

LAST WEEK: No tournament NEXT UP: The Kodak Challenge picks back up at the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital for Children Open, held the week after the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola. Tour of holes | Standings