Insider: Some East Lake regulars may not make it

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They are the ultimate survivors. They are five of the best golfers in the world who have defied the odds to qualify for the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola each year since it began serving as the finale to the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup in 2007.

So Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Jim Furyk and Ernie Els have always been able to make advance reservations to enjoy the hospitality in Atlanta and entertain realistic thoughts of winning the $10 million prize.

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But that could change this year. The fivesome has the potential to shrink quite a bit this year, depending on what happens this week at the BMW Championship at Cog Hill.

Stricker, Mickelson and Mahan are among the 21 players who already have their place secured in the field at East Lake. (And now that Phil is eating meat again, he can go ahead a book his table at Kevin Rathbun's Prime Steak House in Atlanta.) Stricker enters the BMW Championship ranked No. 8 in points, with Mickelson No. 10 and Mahan No. 18. -- all mathematically assured of competing at the TOUR Championship.

Furyk and Els are on a different list, though. Each man, a former winner of a major championship, is on the wrong side of the bubble. Furyk is No. 35, while Els begins the third playoff event all the way back at No. 68.

Only the top 30 when the BMW Championship is over advance. So Furyk and Els have a sense of urgency this week that they haven't felt previously at Cog Hill.

Furyk, who won the FedExCup last year, needs to finish 11th or better to grab enough points to qualify for East Lake. Els, however, has some real digging to do; he can finish no worse than third or his season is over.

Of the five players, Stricker has the best track record at Cog Hill. Even though he's a native of Wisconsin (and the enmity between Wisconsin and Illinois is well documented) Stricker gets plenty of love when he comes to the Chicago area. He was third at the BMW Championship in 2007 and tied for eighth a year ago. Mickelson, who skipped the event the first year it was part of the Playoffs, tied for eighth last year. Mahan has never finished higher than 30th at Cog Hill.

But what about the two guys who need a big finish?

Furyk won the tournament in 2005 before it became a part of the Playoffs and Cog Hill was redesigned. He also tied for 14th in 2007, was joint runner-up in 2009 and shared 15th in 2010. History would indicate that he's got a fighter's chance to make it.

Els has played well at Cog Hill in the three years it has hosted a Playoffs event, but hasn't challenged. He tied for 18th in 2007 and shared 13th last last, both good finishes but not enough to keep his season alive.

Of those five players, Mickelson might have the best opportunity to win the FedExCup, especially if he can improve his position this week at Cog Hill. Mickelson has a great track record in Atlanta, where he won in 2009 and placed third in 2008. Mickelson was a disappointing 13th in the Playoffs last year, but finished no worse than seventh the three previous years.

Stricker was sixth at East Lake in 2009, his only top-10 and also the year he was third in the FedExCup race. Stricker wound up seventh a year ago.

The X-factor may be Furyk. If he can qualify for Atlanta, he should be confident. In addition to winning the TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola and the FedExCup a year ago, he has finished no worse than 11th at East Lake in the finale. And he's been among the top five on the final points last each of the last three years.

But Furyk must first qualify for East Lake. If he does that, we've got a different ball game. And wouldn't that be interesting.

Stan Awtrey is a freelance columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.