Fantasy Insider: PGA Championship
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy Columnist
Last week, I emphasized the value of non-members for this fortnight culminating with the PGA Championship. Right on cue, Ryo Ishikawa, Kyung-Tae Kim, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood were among the 10 that finished inside the top 10 at Firestone. (Francesco Molinari and Peter Hanson also posted top 25s.) Naturally, their value extends across the fantasy landscape, but it ends this week. Since we can't assume any will receive a sponsor exemption for next week's Wyndham Championship or any of the four events in the Fall Series, and since non-members are ineligible for the FedExCup Playoffs, the PGA is your last known opportunity to cash in on the dividends.
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Now, dynasty gamers will want to keep an eye on the earnings list that includes World Golf Championship events, which can be found here. Once the Fall Series concludes, non-members that would haveotherwise finished inside the top 125 in official earnings will have the option of accepting PGA TOUR membership in 2012. Most decisions are well-publicized in advance, but all have until approximately a month thereafter to make it official. Any who do will deserve an inflated fantasy value next year.
Meanwhile, in the Matchups game on Facebook, I went a respectable 3-2-0 at Firestone to lift my overall record to 19-9-3. GarrySmits of The Florida Times-Union took one on the chin in Akron with just one win, so he's now six points back of me for the lead in the notables, 45-39. In the overall standings, kschwab14 and glfhcp10 share the top spot with 53 points.
My picks for the PGA Championship:
• Dustin Johnson over Tiger Woods
• Jason Day over Adam Scott
• Phil Mickelson over Bubba Watson
• Matt Kuchar over Stewart Cink
• Rickie Fowler over Sergio Garcia
The PGATOUR.com staff also publishes its picks, which you can review here.
Finally, with arguably the deepest field of the year on tap, and with so many guys projecting positive results, this week's Power Rankings Plus goes 10 deep:
Power Rankings Plus
11. Nick Watney ... Out for some redemption after sleeping on the 54-hole lead at Whistling Straits a year ago. Two wins this year. Ranks 26th in total driving, 29th in greens hit, fifth in strokes gained-putting and eighth in bogey avoidance.
12. Charl Schwartzel ... Behind missing the cut at the BMW PGA Championship in late May, his T53 at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is his worst finish in nine months, but he hasn't played well at Firestone in the past, so I'm singling it out. The Masters champ has eight top 25s in 12 starts on the PGA TOUR this year, and ranks 31st and 39th in total driving and greens hit, respectively.
13. Matt Kuchar ... Steady, unspectacular T19 at Firestone allowed him to find a groove again for 72 holes after consecutive missed cuts. It was his twelfth top 20 in 18 starts this season. Ranks 22nd on TOUR in greens hit, fourth in the all-around and fifth in bogey avoidance.
14. Phil Mickelson ... You already know that he's a moving target in our world, but he's made the cut in the PGA every year since 1996; that's longest among his streaks in the four majors. He shared second place at the British last month, ranks 13th in the all-around and 27th in bogey avoidance, and prefers a high ball flight.
15. Rickie Fowler ... High-ball hitter arrives on the heels of his fourth career runner-up on the PGA TOUR. He led the field in putting at Firestone; also ranked T4 in birdies and closed with a bogey-free 66 to quiet critics that argue that he has trouble shutting the door. Ranks 12th in the all-around, but does most of his heavy-lifting on the greens.
16. Anthony Kim ... Save a disqualification at the Canadian Open, where he signed for an 81 following his second round and would have missed the cut anyway, he's been dynamite lately. Pair of top 15s in his last three starts and a 62 at The Old White TPC in the third round two weeks ago.
17. Bubba Watson ... No top 20s in his last seven starts on the PGA TOUR, but ranked T2 in greens in regulation at Firestone en route to a share of 21st place, his best finish in the U.S. since the playoff victory in New Orleans. Ranks 21st on TOUR in total driving and first in GIR.
18. Ryo Ishikawa ... Showcased his high ball flight and pure putting at Firestone, where he shared fourth place, easily his best finish in a PGA TOUR event. The 19-year-old ranked second in putting in Akron. Look for a similar plan of attack on the Highlands Course this week.
19. Y.E. Yang ... Coming off a T53 at Firestone, but the 2009 PGA champion has played some of his best golf in the majors this year, with a T20 at the Masters, T3 at the U.S. Open and T16 at the British. Overall, he has six top 25s in 13 starts, and ranks 59th in total driving and 34th in strokes gained-putting.
20. Martin Laird ... The no-cut affair at Firestone might have been the elixir that this Scot needed to regain some form. Without a top 30 in his previous five starts worldwide, he struck it wonderfully to tie for 11th place. He ranked 15th in distance, T4 in greens hit and T11 in putting. Overall, he's 36th in total driving, 46th in GIR, 42nd in strokes gained-putting and 11th in bogey avoidance.
Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)
| Rob's Yahoo! lineup | ||||||||||
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Group A ... Luke Donald (1); Lee Westwood (2); Dustin Johnson (10); Nick Watney (11); Matt Kuchar (13); Phil Mickelson (14); Martin Laird (20)
Group B ... Webb Simpson (7); Steve Stricker (8); David Toms (9); Charl Schwartzel (12); Rickie Fowler (15); Bubba Watson (17); Y.E. Yang (19)
Group C ... Jason Day (3); Rory McIlroy (4); Adam Scott (5); Zach Johnson (6); Anthony Kim (16); Ryo Ishikawa (18)
Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)
Keegan Bradley (C) ... Lumped in here only because he's a PGA TOUR rookie and first-timer in a major. However, he was a 36-hole co-leader last week in Akron before fading to a T15 (thanks to an inward 6-over 41 on Sunday), and he has nine top 25s including his breakthrough at the Byron Nelson. He's been consistent tee-to-cup all year and owns one of the highest ball flights in the field.
Bo Van Pelt (B) ... Trended for a better result at Firestone, but still managed to finish T23 for his seventh top 25 in eight starts. Sits seventh on TOUR in total driving, 20th in greens hit and 11th in the all-around.
Fredrik Jacobson (C) ... Completely unfazed after finally breaking through at the Travelers, with a pair of top 20s at the British Open and WGC-Bridgestone. Possesses one of the lowest ball flights in the world and ranks 155th in total driving, but leans on his putting (ranks sixth) and a boatload of moxie on tough tracks to earn this label. Has posted top 25s in half of his 20 starts on the PGA TOUR this year.
Lucas Glover (A) ... Top 25s in two of his last three starts -- T12 (British), T23 (WGC-Bridgestone). Ranks 24th in strokes gained-putting.
Andres Romero (B) ... Took a week over following his second consecutive top five. Owns a 9-for-12 record in majors with four top 10s. Always a threat to get red-hot with his putter.
Brendon de Jonge (B) ... Three straight top-15 finishes entering, including a season-best T4 in his last start at The Greenbrier. Streaky, yet consistent tee-to-cup. Ranks 17th in bogey avoidance.
Stewart Cink (C) ... Nearby resident is a total flier, but a calculated one. Long enough, experienced enough and already a major champion when many didn't expect it.
Danger (Yahoo! Group)
Martin Kaymer (C) ... Disappointing T29 at Firestone in the wake of a T12 at the British. The defending champ has only three top 10s in stroke-play events all year.
Tiger Woods (A) ... In his return from two and a half months off due to injuries in his left leg, he shared 37th place at Firestone, a venue where he had won seven times in 10 previous visits. Ranked last of the 76 in the field in fairways hit, and fooled with two putters during the tournament. Despite cachet, he's still too inconsistent at the moment to be a reliable resource in any fantasy format.
Darren Clarke (C) ... Only three top 10s worldwide all year, and two have been victories. Totally in his element at the British.
K.J. Choi (A) ... Since a runner-up finish at Aronimink a month ago, hasn't broken par in eight rounds and has finished outside the top 40 in two starts. Short and inaccurate off the tee (and with a low ball flight) can put excessive stress on his irons, short game and putting. He overcame at THE PLAYERS in what boasts another deep field, but he had been playing much, much better upon arrival at TPC Sawgrass.
Ryan Moore (C) ... Shared the 36-hole lead at Firestone before shooting 6-over 74-72 on the weekend to finish T23. Uncharacteristic inconsistency is concerning. Ranks outside the top 125 in total driving and greens in regulation. Low ball flight to boot.
Ricky Barnes (A) ... For a guy that thrives on courses where par is an acceptable goal, I wouldn't mind seeing more execution when the profile fits. None of his relevant splits support an endorsement this week.
Medic! (Yahoo! Group)
Vijay Singh (B) ... First start since withdrawing at the midpoint of the AT&T National due to a bad back. It forced him out of the British and Canadian Opens as well.
Ross Fisher (C) ... Flew to the U.S. last Saturday following a week in a hospital in Ireland where his infant son was admitted due to an illness.
Bill Lunde (C) ... Withdrew after 11 holes in Reno due to an illness. It's his second WD in six starts (Memorial, illness).
Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)
Tim Clark (B) ... Since walking off TPC Sawgrass after 28 holes in May, the PGA Championship is the seventh event from which he's withdrawn following either an official or verbal commitment due to tendinitis in his right elbow.
Nicolas Colsaerts (C) ... Cracked radius in his right arm due to the mishap on a scooter the week of the British Open will keep him sidelined until the European Tour's KLM Open on Sept. 8-11.
Tom Watson (C) ... Qualified via his Senior PGA victory, but has opted for a week off.
Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.
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