Fantasy Insider: U.S. Open

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When I learned that golfers won't be relegated to hacking out of the first cut of rough this week, and with the potential of rain, the natural is to expect the final leaderboard to include a high number of long hitters. At the same time, I don't expect the course to be set up to rule out those that will be playing first from the fairway. If it does rain, then pin positions will be critical. Look for a balance of hole locations that are gettable from the fairways but challenging from thicker grass.

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U.S. OPEN

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TOUR Report
Notable Groups
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Choosing Sides

Meanwhile, I'm intrigued to see how the new chipping areas will play a role. For guys that aren't as adept with tighter lies, it will force them to rein it back a bit on approaches and aim for the centers of greens. That could lead to all sorts of unusual combinations of the game's elite and relative unknowns on the leaderboard.

Another unique twist this year is that Congressional will play as a par 71. It's the second consecutive year (and third in the last four) that the USGA has eschewed its relatively traditional goal for a par 70. Alas, the winning scores at the last two par 71s have been 1-under (Tiger Woods at Torrey Pines South in 2008) and even-par (Graeme McDowell at Pebble Beach last year). From our perspective, this puts an inflated premium on par-5 scoring, which is often directly related to the longer hitters. And that helps underscore my first point above.

One final note, albeit somewhat overrated, is that Americans will have an edge since Congressional has been employed in recent years as host of the Booz Allen Classic (once) and AT&T National (three times). I am downplaying this dynamic only because the PGA TOUR is a melting pot. The better argument is that TOUR members, which consists of golfers from all over the globe, have a slight advantage. But even then, it's a different golf course this week due to the setup and new grass.

Before you dig into the insight below, look for a separate feature next week on Yahoo!'s Summer Segment, which starts with Travelers Championship on June 23.

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11. Charl Schwartzel ... No reason to argue against the possibility that he could become the first since Tiger Woods in 2002 to win the first two legs of the Grand Slam. Dating back to Houston (the week before his triumph at the Masters, which was his fourth straight top 20 in a major), the South African has strung together 15 consecutive rounds of par or better on the PGA TOUR. Zero weaknesses and limitless confidence.

12. Jason Day ... Top 10s in four of his last five starts, including a solo fifth in his last (Byron Nelson). He's a first-timer at the U.S. Open, but owns the kind of game that fits the formula. He's 19th on TOUR in distance off the tee, 69th in greens, 21st in putting, seventh in the all-around and 11th in scrambling. Also T22 in bogey avoidance.

13. Retief Goosen ... I tipped him for last week's stop in Memphis, so I hope you were aboard for his share of third place. It was his first top 10 anywhere since a T3 in Abu Dhabi in January, and his best finish ever in a PGA TOUR event immediately preceding this major, which he has won twice.

14. David Toms ... Shocking missed cut in Memphis, but the bright side is that he had a couple of extra days off from grinding in the heat and humidity. Prior to that, he had been playing top-shelf golf. Currently third on TOUR in finding fairways off the tee, second in hitting greens in regulation, 20th in putting and first in the all-around. Also fourth in bogey avoidance.

15. Robert Karlsson ... His playoff loss in Memphis was his second top five in three starts. He ranked inside the top 12 in all relevant stats at TPC Southwind, as you'd expect from a man of his caliber. Long enough off the tee, and owns an underrated short game despite failing to get up and down for par on the final playoff hole on Sunday.

Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Lee Westwood (1); Phil Mickelson (2); Dustin Johnson (3); Luke Donald (4); Matt Kuchar (6); K.J. Choi (9); Nick Watney (10)

Group B ... Steve Stricker (5); Hunter Mahan (7); Charl Schwartzel (11); Retief Goosen (13); David Toms (14)

Group C ... Rory McIlroy (8); Jason Day (12); Robert Karlsson (15)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Graeme McDowell (A) ... Easy to forget that he was the 54-hole leader at THE PLAYERS last month, and then faded to finish T33 after a 79 in the final round. Also sat one stroke off the 36-hole lead at the Wales Open in his last start before a third-round 81 thwarted a run there; he'd place T30. The moral of the story is that he's close. Don't discount the defending champ.

Aaron Baddeley (C) ... With a return to the winner's circle earlier this year (Northern Trust Open) and three other top 10s, the 30-year-old is fulfilling the theory that he's entering his prime. While I'd like his game off the tee to be a little stronger, he's a valuable 42nd in greens hit and 23rd in putting, proving that his recent work to improve his irons has paid off. The Aussie is also 36th in scrambling and 25th in bogey avoidance.

Brandt Snedeker (C) ... Lots of positives here. He already had a pair of top 10s in five starts in the U.S. Open, won less than two months ago at Hilton Head, has posted top 20s in his last two starts, ranks third on TOUR in putting and owns one of the best greenside games of the guys not typically in the conversation when assessing fields in major championships.

Martin Laird (A) ... Superb profile for this major on a long course. He's ninth on the PGA TOUR in distance off the tee, 54th in greens hit and 59th in putting. Also 13th in bogey avoidance, which has helped pave the way for a victory at Bay Hill along with five other top 10s, including at Colonial four weeks ago.

Webb Simpson (B) ... A first-timer in the U.S. Open. In the midst of a career year in just his third on TOUR, with four top 10s, including his last start at the Memorial. Solid throughout the bag, ranking 20th in total driving, 15th in greens, 19th in scrambling and eighth in bogey avoidance, which isn't bad considering he's 110th in putting. He flat out needs to convert more putts inside five feet (ranks 77th).

Bill Haas (B) ... First appearance in a U.S. Open since 2004. Top 10s in two of his last four starts entering the week -- Quail Hollow and Colonial. Ranks 14th on TOUR in total driving, seventh in greens in regulation, eighth in the all-around and fifth in bogey avoidance.

Adam Scott (C) ... Below-average putting will put the pressure on his tee-to-green game (he's 16th on TOUR in ball-striking), but he overcame his slump in the majors with a close call at the Masters, where he shared second place. And having Steve Williams on his bag this week can't hurt.

Gary Woodland (C) ... Should have a blast, literally, smashing drivers and drawing 3-woods all week. Ranks sixth on TOUR in distance off the tee and 14th in greens hit. Finished solo sixth at the Memorial, his first top 10 since breaking through for his maiden victory at the Transitions. Third start in this major.

Zach Johnson (C) ... Surprising T32 at the FedEx St. Jude Classic given his recent form (three top-12 finishes entering last week), and he's yet to post a top 40 of three cuts made in seven starts in a U.S. Open, but his splits suggest that he's due. ZJ is eighth on TOUR in fairways, greens and scrambling. He's also 17th in bogey avoidance.

Alvaro Quiros (C) ... Teased us with a share of the 18-hole lead at the Masters before fading to finish T27, but rebounded with a share of sixth at THE PLAYERS. Now coming off a T18 at the BMW PGA Championship. As you'd expect, he leads the European Tour in distance off the tee, but also ranks 38th in greens hit and 16th in putting.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Ernie Els (A) ... The 1997 U.S. Open champion at Congressional currently ranks last on the PGA TOUR in putting. His scrambling split is down nearly 17 points over a year ago. A fall of four of five points is usually enough for serious concern.

Harrison Frazar (C) ... Given recent form, including his breakthrough victory in Memphis where he led the field in distance off the tee, putting and birdies, you can't rule out an extension of that this week, but it's time to ride the usual suspects in a major.

Justin Rose (B) ... No top 25s in five starts worldwide (since a T11 at the Masters) primarily based on inconsistent putting. If he's unlocked the mystery behind it, then he'll contend, but gamers are not advised to invest in that hope.

Martin Kaymer (C) ... Depending on just how much he'll be able to draw his tee ball, this could another lost opportunity similar to the missed cut at the Masters. Has posted only two top 10s in 10 stroke-play events worldwide this year.

Jim Furyk (A) ... He's still without a top 20 in six starts, his longest drought since ending a seven-event stretch with a victory in Las Vegas in 1998.

Rory Sabbatini (C) ... Toss out the second-round 82 at the Byron Nelson, where he missed the cut, but lean on the fact that he's yet to post a top 50 in nine U.S. Opens, and has missed the cut in six.

Anthony Kim (C) ... Co-owns the competitive course record at Congressional (62 in 2009) and won the AT&T National here in 2008, but he's finished outside the top 55 in his most recent seven starts, a stretch that began with a missed cut at the Masters. Ranks outside the top 140 on the PGA TOUR in both total driving and greens in regulation.

Brian Gay (A) ... This has nothing to do with his missed cut in Memphis last week, although it was an eye-opener. Rather, he's 0-for-7 in the U.S. Open. Even for someone that splits fairways more than anyone on the PGA TOUR, and ranks 14th in putting and second in scrambling, the courses are often too beefy for a game better suited for cozier confines.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Alex Cejka (C) ... Withdrew prior to his second round in Memphis last week. No formal explanation was released. It's his fourth WD of the year, and second in his last three starts. Don't immediately dismiss him this week, however, even though he doesn't have a top 10 all year. He's 4-for-4 at the U.S. Open. In other words, duffer leaguers should look elsewhere.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Tiger Woods (A) ... Announced on June 7 that he wasn't going to be able to play this week due to lingering injuries in his left leg (knee, Achilles' tendon). Up next on his schedule is the AT&T National on June 30.

Tim Clark (B) ... Withdrew on Saturday due to a right elbow that just won't heal. If you're in a long-term format, it's time to cut bait.

Anders Hansen (C) ... Conflicting stories on why he elected not to compete, but his agent was quoted saying that the Dane is opting for rest, family time and focus on his European Tour schedule.

Bernhard Langer (n/a) ... Withdrew three weeks ago as he didn't want to burn a spot in the field for someone more prepared to win. However, he is scheduled to make his competitive return from thumb surgery at the Berenberg Bank Masters in Cologne, Germany, on the European Senior Tour on Friday.

Rob Bolton is the freelance fantasy columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily reflect the views of the PGA TOUR.