Backspin: Another year of PLAYERS unpredictability

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PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Raise your hand if at the start of the week you thought K.J. Choi would be hoisting the crystal PLAYERS Championship trophy Sunday night.

As well as Choi has played of late (three consecutive top 10s coming in) and in big events throughout his career, few would have predicted this victory in what's become arguably the most unpredictable tournament in all of golf.

The list of winners at TPC Sawgrass has ranged from the biggest names such as Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Davis Love III to big surprises, such as Craig Perks in 2002 (his only TOUR win) or even Tim Clark last year, who won for the first time in his 206th TOUR start. It has ranged from the experienced (the 40-year-old Choi, the 48-year-old Fred Funk in 2005) to the young (Tiger was 25, Adam Scott was 23, Justin Leonard was 25 and Sergio Garcia was 28 when they each won).

Unlike other venues, there is no horse for this Stadium Course. There has never been a back-to-back winner here, and no player has ever won more than two times. Pete Dye's layout simply does not favor one style of player or one particular age group.

Instead, it simply produces a healthy amount of fear -- and not just when you reach the 17th and its island green.

"This course is a train wreck waiting to happen around every corner," said Nick Watney, who experienced that firsthand Sunday on his way to finishing in a tie for fourth. "There is always trouble lurking."

Just ask Graeme McDowell, who led by one shot entering the final round but dropped four balls into the water during a nightmarish 18 holes that left him shaken after a 7-over 79.

"That last round was up there in my top 10 worst last rounds ever," said the reigning U.S. Open champion. "That's going to hurt a little bit."

The course is so demanding that it requires focus on every shot for 18 holes for four straight rounds and that's hard to do and even harder to predict. Rarely can a player get away with a bad round and still win there.

The 17th hole on Sunday is the ultimate example of that, of course, because if a player hits it in the water there, there's no time to recover.

And even if he stays dry, there's no guarantee of survival. Latest example: David Toms, who three-putted from 18 feet in Sunday's playoff hole to lose to Choi in a battle of 40-somethings.

So, who has the best shot at winning next year's PLAYERS Championship? Almost any one of the 144 players who will be in the field. Your guess is as good as mine.

Stock up

Luke Donald: Ho-hum. Another week, another top-10 for Donald. Those aren't the goal, of course, but no one is as consistently good as Donald is right now. He shot a pair of 71s over the final two rounds at TPC Sawgrass and if you saw anything Sunday you know those are good scores on what was a tough golf course. FedExCup rank: 2 (2 last week). Jason Day: Three starts, three top-10s. That's what Day has done the last month. Two of those were big-time events with a tie for second at the Masters and a tie for sixth at THE PLAYERS. We forget sometimes that Day is just 23 because he's been around so long but he's going to be around for a long, long time. FedExCup rank: 28 (30 last week). Nick Watney: THE PLAYERS was Watney's to win, and I'll get into what exactly cost him later on, but he still shot 71 in the final round and he still finished in a tie for fourth. You can't argue the results. Sunday marked the sixth top-10 of Watney's season, which includes a win at a World Golf Championships event. FedExCup rank: 5 (7 last week)

Stock down

Henrik Stenson: The 2009 PLAYERS champ has been a shadow of his former self lately, missing his last four cuts. At TPC Sawgrass, he shot 79-75 to finish at 10 over. That's a far cry from two years ago when he recorded three rounds in the 60s, including a Sunday 66, to win. FedExCup rank: T170 (T170 last week). Anthony Kim: TPC Sawgrass doesn't exactly suit Anthony Kim's game, but he was striping it on the range early in the week. Then he went out and missed his third cut in his last four starts. Since February Kim has just one finish inside the top 60 in stroke-play events on TOUR. He also hasn't broken 70 in any of his last 10 rounds. FedExCup rank: 83 (79 last week) Boo Weekley: The last two months have been pretty lousy for Weekley. There's no other way to put it. In his last eight starts, his best finish was a tie for 45th. He's also missed four cuts and hasnt broken 70 in his last 11 rounds. FedExCup rank: 130 (123 last week)

THE BACK NINE: 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW:

1. As experienced as David Toms is at 44 years old, he still gets nervous. That was evident on the par-5 16th, where a guy known for one of the more memorable layups in major championship history decided to go for it. "I got ahead of myself on 16 in regulation," Toms said of the par-5. "Seeing K.J. had to lay up already, I probably should have laid up and hit a wedge up there and made par at the worst, but I felt like I could get it on the green and take maybe a two-shot lead there and put a lot of pressure on him. So that was the mindset, and I just hit a bad shot." That bad shot probably cost Toms his first win since 2006 and it was out of character for him. Toms had 243 yards to the hole, and his miss is typically to the right as it was on the hole before. Bad shot and a bad decision. But that's what being out of your comfort zone in golf can do.

2. Nick Watney didn't lose the tournament anywhere but the 14th and 16th holes at TPC Sawgrass. He played the former in a combined 5 over last week, and the latter, a par-5, in 1 over. That's stunning when you consider that not only is 16 one of the easier holes on the golf course, but Watney was a cumulative 8 under on the other par-5s at TPC Sawgrass. "There's no breaks," Watney said. "Sixteen's even an easy hole, and I managed to have a four-footer for par. The swales and the water hazard if you hit it too far off line. That is the hard part. There is always trouble lurking."

3. Maybe it's just me, but Matteo Manassero reminds me, at least in terms of how he looks, of a young Seve Ballesteros. Manassero first met the Spaniard as a four-year old and after his first win as a professional received a letter from the legend to congratulate him -- Seve inspired a lot of Italians Manassero said. Manassero's look is about the only similarity to Ballesteros, though. Manassero, while not long, is one of the more accurate players in the game. He also became the youngest player ever to make the cut at THE PLAYERS. He's going to be a really good player for a long time.

4. For a second straight year Tiger Woods left TPC Sawgrass injured and with lingering questions. Only this time they focus on the health of his left knee and Achilles rather than his neck and personal life. As of Sunday night there was no update on his condition, but after following Woods for a few holes last Thursday it was pretty obvious something was wrong. Even his swing speed seemed to be off on some shots and he regularly used a club for support as he walked. I have no idea what the status of Woods' health is, but I do know from experience that if you keep re-injuring the same body part (in my case an ankle), eventually it loses some of its strength.

5. To the victor go the spoils and in the case of Graeme McDowell there were plenty of those after a pretty spectacular 10 months. You can't blame a guy for enjoying the fruits of success but it sounds like McDowell lost his focus in the process. "Things felt too easy," he said. "I think sometimes you forget the reasons why you're there. You forget the reasons, the things you worked on to get you to the point in your golf swing where it feels easy, so you take your eye off certain departments of your game."

6. If recent FedExCup history holds, we won't have heard the last of K.J. Choi. The veteran is usually a force come Playoffs time, finishing fifth in 2007, 10th in 2008 and 15th last year. With the 600 points garnered for winning THE PLAYERS, he's up to sixth in the standings and well-positioned for another deep playoff run.

7. I haven't read it yet, but I've heard rave reviews for "Golf's Driving Force," the former PGA TOUR Commissioner Deane Beman's new book. It's authored by former Golfweek writer Adam Schupak, who had total access to Beman and those around him in telling the inside story of the former Commissioner's tenure. The book was self-published and offers some fascinating insights from the passages I've read so far. Don't take my word for it, though. Said Joe Ogilvie via Twitter: "Through nine chapters in Schupak's Deane Beman book. Have learned more about the history of the PGA TOUR than my time on the policy board." You can get it on Amazon.com, and it's also available on Kindle.

8. Current Commissioner Tim Finchem held an impromptu Q&A with the media Sunday morning and addressed a number of topics (click here for the highlights). One of those topics was next year's schedule. Though he wasn't specific, he did say there will be some changes in 2012. Stay tuned.

9. There's been a lot of debate on the May vs. March date for THE PLAYERS, but on the five-year anniversary of the event moving to its current date I'd say it's worked out pretty well. This year's weather delay was the first since the tournament moved from March and the course looked as good as it ever has thanks to the work of Tom Vlach and his staff.

Forward Spin

Unlike at TPC Sawgrass, there should be plenty of birdies at Colonial Country Club, where Zach Johnson won a year ago with a 21-under 259 total. Adam Scott and Ben Crane are among those in the field at Colonial. Scott has never won this event but he's played well in Texas, having won in San Antonio, Houston and Dallas. A victory in Fort Worth this week would give Scott the Texas Slam. Crane, meanwhile, was seventh there last year and finished fifth in 2008.

Next Kodak Challenge hole

TOURNAMENT: Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial HOLE: The par-3, 171-yard 13th at Colonial Country Club ABOUT THE HOLE: The 13th hole is a risk-reward par 3. You face a tee shot with total carry over water to this narrow, two-tiered green. Winds that average 15-18 miles per hour can make this hole very difficult. However, with a pinpoint tee shot, you could have a birdie opportunity. Kodak Challenge standings