Fantasy Insider: Analysis for the Masters

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One footnote to my Power Rankings on Monday ... Adding a stat to support the premium on experience at the Masters, since and including Tiger Woods' first of four Masters' triumphs in 1997, there have been eight first-time winners of this major. None made fewer than two starts prior (Woods and Zach Johnson) while Mark O'Meara (14) topped the list. The average number of starts prior to securing the first green jacket was 6.625.

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MASTERS

Tee Times
TOUR Report
Weather
Course tour
Power Rankings
Choosing Sides

Now, in each of the last three weeks, I've fielded emails asking why my Yahoo! lineup doesn't match up exactly with my Power Rankings. So, if you've ever wondered the same, here you go:

The Power Rankings speaks to my confidence level, not to the dynamics of any fantasy format. For example, Yahoo!'s game limits individual starts to 10 for the season, so strategy is necessary throughout the year. Most golfers make more than 10 starts, so even though a guy might sit No. 4 in a Power Rankings in mid-June, I may have only three starts remaining and will want to holster them other events and/or the FedExCup Playoffs. Think of the kinds of seasons Nick Watney, Matt Kuchar and Hunter Mahan have already had. Rationing is part of that game.

Next, while I share a starting lineup and a bench in the inset below, tee times are usually posted after I file the Fantasy Insider, so I may move guys in and out later. Then, on Wednesday evening, if necessary, I'll take one more peek at the weather forecast and adjust accordingly for waves. This is a duty that all Yahoo! gamers should copy.

Finally, there are often golfers in whom I have more confidence in going low in a specific round over others that might sit higher in the Power Rankings, and Yahoo!'s format rewards low scores per round. At the same time, I fully expect to move the guys higher in the Power Rankings into my starting lineup at Yahoo! on Sunday for potential bonus points and a victory.

Power Rankings Plus

11. Justin Rose ... Nothing not to like here. He enters on the heels of a pair of top fives on the Florida Swing, and ranked second and T1 in greens hit at Copperhead and Bay Hill, respectively. Sits fifth on TOUR in the all-around and T8 in bogey avoidance. Also 5-for-5 at the Masters, with three top 25s.

12. Steve Stricker ... Enters following a share of fourth in Houston. Continues to ride the fence of underachiever and underrated in the majors. Owns multiple top 10s in all of them, including two here, but he's rarely a threat. A smarter fantasy own in non-majors and the FedExCup Playoffs.

13. Dustin Johnson ... Enigmatic season speaks to his youth (26 years old) and inexperience more than talent. Still a rock-solid fantasy own that plays above the stats. Underwhelming record here, but this is just his third start.

14. Graeme McDowell ... Missed the cut at Bay Hill (80-73), his first weekend off after a stroke-play start worldwide since the PGA Championship. Fourth start at Augusta National, where his lone payday was for a T17 in 2009. Ranks 40th on TOUR in putting, 41st in bogey avoidance and eighth in par-4 scoring.

15. Paul Casey ... First start since a T37 at Copperhead, where he opened with a bogey-free 64 and closed with a sloppy 74. Six top 20s in six starts here. Has the length, experience and balance necessary to contend annually.

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Power Rankings Distribution for Yahoo! (rank)

Group A ... Phil Mickelson (1); Nick Watney (2); Lee Westwood (3); Matt Kuchar (4); Tiger Woods (7); K.J. Choi (8); Luke Donald (10); Dustin Johnson (13); Graeme McDowell (14)

Group B ... Hunter Mahan (5); Bubba Watson (9); Justin Rose (11); Steve Stricker (12); Paul Casey (15)

Group C ... Ryan Moore (6)

Dark Horse (Yahoo! Group)

Anthony Kim (C) ... Rekindled some mojo in Houston, with a bogey-free 64 in the second round. Finished T20 at the 2009 Masters and solo third last year, when he charged home with a 65, his second 65 in eight rounds here. Had two eagles and 18 birdies for the week. Has already birdied every hole at Augusta National except for the fourth (aggregate 3-over), 10th (5-over) and 11th (4-over).

Aaron Baddeley (C) ... Bidding to become Australia's first to win this championship. Coming off a T4 in Houston. Still averaging a filthy 70.00 percent of his greens in regulation, and holding strong at 42nd on TOUR in putting. Placed T17 in last appearance here (2009).

Jim Furyk (A) ... Officially off the schneid, with top 15s in his last two starts on the Florida Swing. Has absorbed a mere 15 holes over par in his last eight rounds.

Adam Scott (C) ... Became one with his long putter at Doral, where he shared sixth place, led the field in fairways hit and ranked T4 in greens, but he hasn't competed since. It's his longest layoff in advance of this major since he first qualified in 2002. Solid record here, with four top 25s, including a T18 last year

Ian Poulter (B) ... Usually shows up in the biggest events; this one is no exception. He's 6-for-6 with top 25s in each of the last four years. His T10 last year is a career-best.

Trevor Immelman (C) ... Since his win here in 2008, he's posted top 20s, but still qualifies as a dark horse given his overall results elsewhere. Meanwhile, he's also on the long road back to relevance, having cashed in his last five starts, including a T12 at Bay Hill (despite a closing 75). Completely unimpressive on paper, but manufacturing.

Rickie Fowler (B) ... Voted in high school as most likely to join Horton Smith (1934), Gene Sarazen (1935) and Fuzzy Zoeller (1979) as winners of the Masters in their first appearance. OK, not really, but he should have been. Fowler's tee-to-green game is a little squirrelly, but he's overachieved at every level. And his greatest asset is between his ears.

Louis Oosthuizen (A) ... The reigning British Open champ favors distance over accuracy off the tee. He's more aggressive than for which he gets credit, and his results reveal a confidence level that bucks what his splits would otherwise suggest. He's 0-for-2 at Augusta National but enters with top 20s in his last two starts this season.

Danger (Yahoo! Group)

Martin Kaymer (C) ... Posted a pair of top 25s on the Florida Swing, but he's the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world, so expectations are higher. Plus, he's 0-for-3 at the Masters, and hasn't quite, well, mastered a draw, which has received some attention recently.

Martin Laird (A) ... Mad respect for his game, and he's coming off his gutty victory at Bay Hill, but he's also a first-timer here. Otherwise, there is no reason why he shouldn't succeed in this match-up.

Ernie Els (A) ... If putting wasn't so important, then he wouldn't be lumped into this category. While he's 12th on TOUR in greens in regulation, he ranks a career-worst 159th in putting. Last two paychecks barely cracked $25K combined. Just two under-par rounds in his last eight.

Rory McIlroy (C) ... Hasn't played since fading to a T10 at Doral with a Sunday 74. Hasn't broken 70 in six rounds at Augusta National. Would like at least one more start from the 21-year-old here before offering an endorsement.

Retief Goosen (B) ... He's now gone six straight starts worldwide without a top 10, and four consecutive sans a top 25. His T60 in Houston was his worst finish in the U.S. since missing the cut at Pebble Beach in February of last year.

Rory Sabbatini (A) ... Former co-runner-up here (2007) has already exceeded his 2010 earnings thanks to a victory at the Honda and five other top 25s, but he remains a better long-term own. So, if you're going to dive in for Yahoo!, just leave him in your lineup for the first two days in case he goes on one of his patented tears.

Medic! (Yahoo! Group)

Angel Cabrera (B) ... The 2009 champ is reportedly in the process of receiving tooth implants. Missed the cut on the number in Houston. Only top 45 in six starts this year is a tie for seventh in Puerto Rico.

Tim Clark (B) ... Has been sidelined for two and a half months due to tendinitis in his right elbow.

Camilo Villegas (B) ... Withdrew early from last week's Shell Houston Open, giving him a week off following his missed cut at Bay Hill. He's 3-for-8 on the year, including going 0-1 at the Match Play.

Notable WDs (Yahoo! Group)

Bernhard Langer (n/a) ... Had surgery on his left thumb following an accident while biking, and withdrew on March 25, ending his streak of consecutive starts here at 27. Hopes to return to competition in late May.