Fantasy Insider: the Memorial Tournament

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Jun. 1, 2010
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist

Calling all Yahoo! gamers! With the third and final segment of your game right around the corner, I'm interested in how the best and worst of you have approached the revised format thus far. Email me at FantasyInsider@charter.net with your philosophy and strategy in 75 words or less. What may have worked in the past for you might not in 2010, and vice versa. I will include the best feedback in this space next week. Providing your first name, Yahoo! team name or "anonymous" is sufficient.

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Here's how my response would read: "Gone with Power Rankings for most part. Saving studs for majors, playoffs. Trying to begin tournaments with bench of potential winners (Colonial: Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk, Sean O'Hair, Tim Clark). Starters are red-hot or second-tier statistical fits (Colonial: Scott Verplank, Brian Gay, Bo Van Pelt, Ben Crane). Forgot to update lineups on occasion, been out of town or never fired up PC on Saturdays. Will usually only make early-round changes if one wave is benefited."

I tend to devalue everyone until the final round when the bonus points kick in. Maybe it's because I'm concerned about going into THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola without Phil Mickelson available, but no one has 10 quality starts, so I wouldn't be surprised if I leave one or two of Lefty's on the table.

MORE: Rookie Watch | Medical Extensions | Reshuffle | Major qualifiers

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Kenny Perry and Tiger Woods.

Zach Johnson -- Led the Colonial field in greens hit (missed only 11) and birdies (24), and suffered just three bogeys. Given that effort and the fact that he was once a runner-up here (2006), it's time to remove the restraints. Green light.

Steve Stricker -- Has cashed nine of 10 times here, but has yet to record a top 10. En route to a T38 in his comeback at Colonial, he finished outside the top 45 in every major statistic. Continue to lay low here.

Bryce Molder -- Coming off T5 at Colonial, where he closed with a sloppy 70 (14 GIR, 33 putts). Sits 151st in total driving, and hasn't seen Muirfield Village since missing the cut in 2002, so it doesn't set up well this week.

Jonathan Byrd -- Finished T3 in last year's edition despite two double bogeys in his last five holes, but it ended an 0-for-4 skid at the event. He's missed his last five cuts in 2010, including by one stroke at Colonial. He led the PGA TOUR in total driving last year, but ranks 127th today. Abstain.

Ryan Moore -- Started the year with a pair of top 10s. None since. Sits 146th in birdies or better on par 4s and 158th in proximity from 50-75 yards, but he's third in total driving. He was also the runner-up here in 2007 and validated that with a T10 in '08. Judgment: avoid, especially in this deep field. Wait until he turns it around.

Martin Laird -- First-timer at Memorial. Finished T10 at Colonial, where he carded just one bogey over his last 41 holes. Should fare well tee-to-green this week, but it'll be an education once he toys around the greens. The Scot ranks outside the top 100 in proximity from 50-75 yards, scrambling, sand saves and putting. His value remains highest in long-term formats.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Robert Allenby, Jim Furyk, Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott and Bo Van Pelt.

Brian Davis -- In a month or less, it'll slip your mind that he was the runner-up to Zach Johnson at Colonial, but you may never forget his playoff loss at Harbour Town. The Brit rode a hot putter in Fort Worth, a necessity considering he finished T61 in fairways and T51 in greens. He gets swallowed up in fields like this, evident by an 0-for-2 record at the Memorial. Give him a breather.

Jeff Overton -- With a T2-T3 swing through the Metroplex, he's one of the TOUR's hottest right now. Although his cachet is on the rise, he's playing in the deep end this week. He's 98th in total driving and 105th in proximity from 50-75 yards. Besides, the Indiana grad is in hostile country near Columbus this week!

Dustin Johnson -- Still no word on why he opted out of the Colonial last week, although he didn't play it last year either. In 2009, he finished T4 at the Byron Nelson, and then T14 at the Memorial. He tees it up this week on the heels of a T7 at this year' Nelson. When he's on, tracks like Muirfield Village become playgrounds. It's likely that most of your competition is sidestepping this week, which makes it the perfect time for you to strike.

Picks for other formats
ONE-AND-DONE: Geoff Ogilvy. Top 10s each of the last three years at this event. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $2,491,594.00)
DUFFER: Chris Wilson. Zero top 50s of five paydays in 12 starts for the rookie. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $383,937.47)
Rob's YAHOO! Stats: SEASON: 3,145 points (15,408th) ... SPRING: 1,216 points (29,800th)

K.J. Choi -- Considering his brilliance at this event (9-for-10, 6 top 25s, 1 win) and play in 2010 (12-for-12, seven top 25s), he's on everyone's short list this week. He's the one guy I'm vetoing from the 50-75 yard proximity stat (he's 190th in eight attempts). Choi is doing too many things right, and deserves consideration as a contender for the U.S. Open.

Nick Watney -- Has been dialed in since the Masters. He's ninth in total driving and birdies or better on par 4s. Has also cashed in all three starts here. If my Power Rankings would have included an 11th guy, he would have arm-wrestled Choi for the last spot.

Hunter Mahan -- Played his hometown Dallas-Fort Worth swing T50-MC. He leads the TOUR in total driving but ranks 166th in birdies or better on par 4s, and you already know about his spotty short game. Last year's T13 here is more of an anomaly than a rule for now.

J.B. Holmes -- If a little rain falls on the area, he could win. The combination of his length, scrambling and improved putting would be deadly on soft turf. He's missed just one cut all year, but he's coming off a T43 at the Byron Nelson. Although he's broken par just twice in 10 rounds at Muirfield Village (and cashed one of four times), I'm bullish.

Sean O'Hair -- Well, he certainly fooled me last week. After squeezing into my Power Rankings for Colonial, he missed the cut by two. Still stymied by inconsistent putting, he remains overvalued in all formats.

Stewart Cink -- Superb record here, with five top 10s in 14 starts, including two in the last three, but hasn't really clicked in a full-field event yet this year. Coming off a T22 at the Colonial, where he finished an encouraging T10 in fairways and T3 in greens. Sets up wonderfully in all of my key stats, too. He's worth a spot on your bench if you're saving starts elsewhere.

Camilo Villegas -- First start since missing the cut at THE PLAYERS. Has cashed twice here, but neither for a top 30. Make no connection between his victory at the Jack Nicklaus-redesigned PGA National earlier this year and the Golden Bear's hometown track this week. Next.

Lucas Glover -- Could be a poster boy for total driving, but he's had trouble avoiding the big number at Muirfield Village. Despite his improved status as a major champion, he's still a much better long-term fantasy own.

Rory McIlroy -- Since breaking through at Quail Hollow, he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS and placed T48 at the BMW PGA Championship. This is his first look at Muirfield Village and a good time to remind you that no rookie has ever won this event.

Henrik Stenson -- It's been a disappointing year for guy that started it in my top two of best chances to win his first major (Lee Westwood is the other). In 12 starts worldwide this year, the Swede has just two top 20s, both T8s. This is his first start at the Memorial.

Webb Simpson -- The sophomore is slumping, and is bona fide duffer league material lately, missing his last five cuts.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Matt Kuchar.

Ricky Barnes
-- Swallowed just three bogeys while posting a T7 at Colonial. Make no mistake, he is better because of his putter. His total driving is actually worse, and he's a first-timer at the Memorial. Allow him to experience the learning curve alone, won't you?

Justin Rose -- Before posting an insignificant T71 at Colonial, he finished T10 at the BMW PGA Championship. He's also shown enough flashes throughout the year, and has a pedigree at the Memorial (two top fives in five starts) to earn a look in the Yahoo! game. He's 11th in total driving and one of the most consistent across the board.

Angel Cabrera -- I'm not sure which is the more difficult to believe, that he's already made 11 starts this season or that he's never teed it up at Muirfield Village. Given his reckless abandon and the host track's allowance for it, he's a smart back-up to Matt Kuchar in the Yahoo! game even though he's a first-timer.

Tom Lehman -- Fresh off his Senior PGA Championship victory, he figures to be busy this summer, including starts at the British Open and PGA Championship. The 1994 Memorial champ has missed the cut just twice in 15 starts, and not since 2003. Alas, Muirfield Village is tad too long for the veteran to have a realistic chance at contending this week.

Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net.

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