Fantasy Insider: HP Byron Nelson Championship

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May. 19, 2010
By Rob Bolton, PGATOUR.COM Fantasy columnist

The mathematical start of the second half of the regular season is really a calm before the storm. We are one month from beginning a three-and-a-half month stretch that includes three majors, one World Golf Championship event and the FedExCup Playoffs. These are hardly the dog days of May, but they might feel that way if you're already looking ahead.

By now, full-season rotisserie teams have a strong pulse on their competition. Depending on your format, you know by now that you're well positioned for the forthcoming flurry, or you know that you'll need a mad run to win your league title. Of course, for those out there that include the Fall Series (and theoretically, still have upwards of 25 events remaining), you're just hoping to occupy the catbird's seat when the final stroke disappears at THE TOUR Championship on September 26.

Whatever your game, we always take it one tourney at a time here.

MORE: Rookie Watch | Medical Extensions | Reshuffle | Major qualifiers

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Heath Slocum and Charlie Wi.

Kenny Perry -- There aren't likely to be too many first-place fantasy teams with him on the roster. That he's banked over $500K this season seems incredible since we've seen so little of him during telecasts. He's coming off a T22 at THE PLAYERS Championship, his lone top 25 in a full-field event since winning last year's Travelers Championship. Because he has a reputation for being streaky, Yahoo! gamers might want to consider him for a bench role for the opening round this week, only because Group A is thinner than the face of a hot driver. Moreover, Perry finished T2 in fairways hit and T10 in greens in regulation at TPC Sawgrass. That kind of ball-striking alone will give him the birdie looks necessary to contend at the HP Byron Nelson.

Vijay Singh -- His T64/MDF at the VTO was his first payday since getting pinged with a back injury two months ago, but that's of very little consequence. What matters more is that he's in a shambles with the flat stick in his mitts. Wouldn't mind hearing him evoke some of the thoughts from his triumph at the 2008 Deutsche Bank Championship, where he convinced himself that he was the best putter in the world. He wasn't by any stretch of our imagination, but he got the job done in the clutch. His confidence is gone, as is his swagger. If he didn't go T4-T11 in Florida in March, I'd start to wonder if he has anything left in the tank, period.

Justin Leonard -- If you were surprised that he didn't crack my Power Rankings, then you haven't been paying attention to his play of late. While he has a pair of top 20s at this event since 2008, the Texan remains too inconsistent with his irons. Consider that he's hitting nearly five and a half percent fewer greens than over a year ago. I hate to say it, but he's a trap.

Scott Verplank -- The all-time money leader at this event has finished T61-MC since Cottonwood was yanked from the rotation here. Coincidentally, his last win on the PGA TOUR was at this event during Cottonwood's swan song. Like Leonard, he's struggling with his approach game. Yes, Verplank finished T13 at THE PLAYERS, but he was T52 in GIR. His putter bailed him out (first in putting, T2 in birdies).

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Charley Hoffman, J.B. Holmes and Hunter Mahan.

Rory Sabbatini -- The defending champion led the field in putting and birdies here a year ago, but you can never anticipate hot weeks on the greens. His second-place finish at the season-opening SBS Championship still accounts for over 71 percent of his season's earnings in 14 starts. Go ahead and kindly allow your competition to rely on history this week.

Picks for other formats
ONE-AND-DONE: Andres Romero. Saving Hunter Mahan (No. 1 in my Power Rankings) for the Travelers Championship. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $2,477,582.00)
DUFFER: Parker McLachlin. For all kinds of reasons. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $350,112.80)
Rob's YAHOO! Stats: SEASON: 2,804 points (23,656rd) ... SPRING: 875 points (52,413th)

Sean O'Hair -- It's been five years already since he exploded for a runner-up finish here as a 22-year-old, setting the foundation for the Rookie of the Year award. Fast forward to the present and the three-time TOUR winner is still adjusting to a modified approach. He's shorter but more accurate off the tee, but has lost a little of the precision deeper in his bag. His putting has always been the primary obstacle, but his irons a tad off now, too, turning top 10s into top 25s and 30s. None of this is of major concern, but I'd prefer a bit more positive trending to hop aboard.

Dustin Johnson -- Tore up TPC Four Seasons a year ago en route to a T4 paycheck, leading the field in distance off the tee (I know, shocker) and finishing second in birdies. I get the sense that he's still learning how to manage his unworldly game. Case in point, he's first on TOUR in going for the green, but he sits 164th in scrambling and 185th in sand saves. The go-for-broke method fails more than it succeeds. Since his win at Pebble Beach three months ago, he's yet to crack a top 25 in seven starts (including a 0-1 showing at the WGC-Match Play). I'll take another pass this week.

Y.E. Yang -- Catches my eye since he's fifth in ball-striking (21st in greens hit) and 16th in birdies or better on par 4s. Transplanted home game, too, for the native South Korean, who lives in the Big D.

Briny Baird -- Once upon a time, he was a natural consideration for this event, and his results the last two years here (T13-T8) validate it; however, the veteran has ballooned to 89th in greens in regulation. His 65.77 clip is also a career low. Toss in that he's missed his last three cuts and he sets up as a classic sucker play.

Brian Davis -- With a runner-up finish, this is where the Brit ended his string of three top fives a year ago. It's a little different this time around, as he's gone T57-MC-MC since his memorable playoff loss at the Heritage. He's also 183rd in birdies or better on par 4s. Abstain.

Kevin Sutherland -- Leads the TOUR in greens in regulation and rarely misses cuts, although he fanned here a year ago. Also enters on the heels of a T63-MC run through Quail Hollow and TPC Sawgrass. All the more reason to classify him as a sleeper this week. (While placing T7 here in 2008, he was T6 in GIR despite hitting just six in the final round.)

Greg Chalmers -- TPC Four Seasons is one of the few tracks on which the local resident would seem to have a fair chance of clinching his first PGA TOUR title, even though it might be a hair too long. His T16 a year ago here is a career-best in eight starts. His vitals aren't worth sharing but he did finish fifth in New Orleans four weeks ago, so it's not like he hasn't attained some consistent form lately.

Andres Romero -- Although he's a first-timer at the event, he's my one-and-done selection this week. Aggressiveness is a requisite, which defines him to a "T." And he's coming off a T10 at THE PLAYERS.

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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Ben Crane, Rickie Fowler, Spencer Levin, Ryan Palmer and Carl Pettersson.

Jimmy Walker -- Really impressive T3 from the San Antonian at last week's Valero, where he finished T10 in greens hit and T2 in birdies. He's the only rep from the top-five finishers of that event in the field this week. Tough one to call, too. In one way, it sets up as a letdown since the T3 was a personal best on the PGA TOUR. On the other, he's motivated to ride the good vibes and secure his card for 2011. Because he wouldn't otherwise be in the picture and Group C is deep this week, Walker will not crack my Yahoo! lineup.

John Rollins -- Chalk up the missed cut in San Antonio as an anomaly on a new track. Rollins' ball-striking (he's sixth on TOUR) is too good to waive two straight weeks. He's also 18th in birdies or better on par 4s.

John Senden -- He'd normally be an automatic at this event, where he's cashed six of eight times, including a personal-best solo seventh last year, but the Aussie has missed three of his last four cuts due to some brutal putting.

Aron Price -- This Aussie is on a nice run, having gone T10-T17-T17 since the Zurich Classic. As a non-winner on conditional status, he'll be fortunate to make 15 starts this season unless he wins, so don't bite the apple. He's 33rd on TOUR in greens hit but 175th in birdies or better on par 4s. A few times every year, someone you least expect will get hot and then disappear. Get the point?

Will MacKenzie -- Coming off an opening 85 at the Valero after which he cited a back injury and withdrew. It's been a forgettable season anyway.

Parker McLachlin -- First start since calling it quits at Quail Hollow due to a wrist injury after signing for an 88 in the opening round. He's failed to cash in his last five starts.


Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at
FantasyInsider@charter.net.

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