Course, PLAYERS history say plenty could still win

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Charley Hoffman is one of many contenders still alive for THE PLAYERS Championship. He's three shots back at 11 under.

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. -- Just when you think you know what's coming out here, you realize you have no clue.

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Third-round coverage

CAN WESTWOOD DO IT?: We've heard it before. Lee Westwood is on the verge of a breakthrough victory. Will it happen this time? Column PHIL'S FOCUS: Phil Mickelson heads into the final round thinking about winning rather than the spoils that come with it. Column MOTHER'S DAY MOTIVATION: Heath Slocum's wife won't be in Ponte Vedra Beach to see the final round, but she'll be on his mind. Story FIRST-TIMER: An unheralded first-time PLAYERS participant is lighting up the Stadium Course. Story NO. 17 ... EASY?: A surprising stat reveals that the 17th hole isn't as daunting as in years' past. Story DON'T COUNT 'EM OUT: If TPC Sawgrass or history has a say, plenty of players still have a shot at the title. Story CONTENDERS CHART: We break down every player within earshot of the lead going into the deciding day. Chart

A bounce here. A gust of wind at 17. A miss-club.

An approach that leaves skidmarks on a player's heart, not to mention the concrete greens. Two chip-ins in the final three holes.

A club that was the right one that day. An unbelievable who-knows-how-many-breaks-to-the-hole birdie that bellyflops in for birdie.

Anything can and will happen here on any given tournament Sunday afternoon. This, after all is THE PLAYERS where the Stadium Course takes on a firmer and faster look overnight. Where the pin placements lure you. Where everyone who's in touch with the lead as they made the stretch run has a more than your average chance.

Chew on this stat: 17 of the 28 players who have won on this course have done it from behind. Davis Love III did it twice -- the second time with a closing 64. Steve Elkington and Hal Sutton each did it once.

Henrik Stenson did it last year, closing with a 66 to come from a record-tying five back -- Justin Leonard set the record in 1998 -- and Sergio Garcia and Phil Mickelson both came from behind the two years before that.

And before you go any farther, contemplate this: The golf course is changing. The greens are firming up and that's not good news for the shorter hitters. Actually, it's not good news for anyone since hard-and-fast only magnifies the quirks on these greens.

As for the weather? It's supposed to be at least 10 degrees cooler Sunday, maybe more. But don't think that means good things for the greens. It never has before. Not with the go-for-rock-hard superintendent and grounds crew around.

The bottom line? A total of 14 players are within five shots of the lead -- we choose that since it's the record -- and anyone who gets on a roll -- think Rory McIlroy's closing 62 last week or Ryo Ishikawa's 58 -- could throw a wrench into what you think might happen.

Not that we see a 62 or a 58 tomorrow, but we do see those final three holes. So does everyone chasing Lee Westwood and his one-shot lead.

Everyone from Robert Allenby to John Rollins, Zach Johnson, Bill Haas and Phil Mickelson are in this one. Maybe -- depending on how the day unfolds -- even more. Fred Funk has won this before and he's six back along with DL3 who could go low and give himself a chance at No. 3.

"If the course was like it was the first two days, yes, you can come from behind,'' Love said after a 71. "If it gets much tougher than it was today, you'll be glad to have a lead.''

Notice he didn't name names. As well as Westwood is playing, so are the guys chasing him.

Twenty four hours ago defending U.S. Open champ Lucas Glover threw out a 65 just to make his first cut here in five tries. Now, after birdies at 15 and 16, he's two back and lurking. Five players, in fact, birdied two of the last three holes Saturday to slide up the board -- Allenby, Ben Crane, Francesco Molinari, Chris Stroud and Bo Van Pelt.

"You've got a lot of eagle and birdie holes there,'' said Charley Hoffman, who threw out a third-round 69 and is three back. "Those same holes can be bogey and double-bogey holes.''

After hearing the come-from-behind stat and mentioning those last three holes, Glover grinned. "If you can stay close and post it and let the guys behind you look at it, it's pretty daunting for the guys behind you.''

Mostly, though, as Mickelson pointed out, the players aren't looking as much at how many strokes they need to make up, but rather how many players stand between them and the lead. In Mickelson's case, that would be 10 players and one of them is Westwood, the fourth-ranked player in the world.

Mickelson could bump Tiger Woods from the top spot with a win. And Tiger? The man who keeps popping up shots at all the wrong times is 10 back and, well, out of it. Unless he can summon an incredible round on a week when nothing is going right. Even if he does say things are getting closer to coming together.

"I need a lot of help,'' he said. 'I've got to go play a great round of golf.''

The best he can hope for? Finding his way into the top five and if Mickelson wins, he still hangs onto No. 1. Even that seems slim.

But those 13 guys within five shots of Westwood? Nothing might be a surprise.

We've seen Craig Perks, who was ranked 25th in 2002, chip in for eagle on 16 and for par on 18 to win. We've seen Paul Goydos take a lead into the 17th, find the water and lose to Garcia in a playoff.

So before you gloss over some names, think about it. Van Pelt and Johnson are both 4-under on the 16th hole for the week. Stroud, who is three back after a 66, is playing lights out in his first PLAYERS. Tim Clark, also three back, is defying the odds as one of the shortest hitters out here.

Molinari is right there in his first PLAYERS and just his ninth PGA TOUR event; Crane is looking for his second win this year. And Slocum? He's ready to erase that double-bogey at 17 Saturday, while Van Pelt hopes to cash in after top five finishes in his last two events this year.

And then there's Adam Scott. The 2004 PLAYERS champ is seven shots back at 209. No man's land if you look at history. But that's the beauty of history -- players are always revising it with new records.

"I'd like to get a mid-60s round going tomorrow,'' he said, "and just see how that stands. Get in early and hope.''

Or just come down the stretch in touch -- at least -- with the leaders.

"I felt like things started to click a little bit today, and I think I've got one more low round in me," Mickelson said. "I just hope that it will be enough, that I'll be within striking distance."

If he does -- just in case you're wondering -- he would join DLIII with two comeback wins. In 2007, he came from one back to win by two shots.

So keep an open mind. And don't count anyone within five, maybe six, shots out.

And remember, just when you think you know what's about to happen, you might really have no clue.