Better than most? Don't tell that to Tiger, Phil at the Stadium Course

Stan Badz/PGA TOUR

Tiger Woods hits his tee shot on the par-3 third hole. The par-3s at the Stadium Course have given him fits over the years.

When it comes to figuring out Tiger Woods at TPC Sawgrass, it's best to quit trying.

PHIL OR TIGER: Brian Wacker reveals why Phil Mickelson is better suited than Tiger Woods to win this week. Column SIX THINGS TO CONSIDER: Ryan Smithson pinpoints some areas that may determine Phil's or Tiger's fate at TPC Sawgrass. Column BY THE NUMBERS: Using the ShotLink stats since 2003, here's an inside look at how Phil and Tiger have performed on the Stadium Course. Chart IN THE SAME FIELD: Phil and Tiger have played in the same PGA TOUR event more than 170 times in their careers. Who's had the better hand? Story PAIRED TOGETHER: Here's a breakdown of the 24 times that Phil and Tiger have been paired together in the same round. Story VIDEOS: Watch the Sawgrass Stories of the world's two best players. Phil Mickelson | Tiger Woods PHOTO GALLERY: Check out this selection of photos with both Phil and Tiger in the picture. Photo Gallery VICTORY ROOM: Comprehensive coverage of each of Tiger Woods' PGA TOUR wins. Archive

It's that complicated. And it will be even more difficult to predict how he will do this week on the heels of his just sixth missed cut as a professional. On the other side of the coin, Phil Mickelson looks nearly unbeatable after winning the 21-and-up age bracket flight at Quail Hollow.

It's no secret that the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass isn't on Woods' short list for favorite courses. The course's small greens are in sharp contrast to Augusta National and St. Andrews. The wind can be unpredictable, and Tiger's power advantage is negated by the pedestrian length (7,215 yards) and choking rough.

Phil Mickelson's record at the Stadium Course is a little easier to ascertain, although he comes into the week with a win and a second against two strong fields at Augusta and Quail Hollow. Basically, Mickelson's performance will be more tied to his putting even more than usual. Even on the smallish greens, he's racked up more than his fair share of 30-putt days at the Stadium Course, which makes it extremely difficult to break 70.

During Mickelson's only win at the Stadium Course (2007) he averaged under 30 putts per round. That number was back to 30 in both 2008 and 2009. There are really only a handful of greens on the course that don't have severe undulations, so it's difficult to really get a lot of momentum going on the greens.

By looking at ShotLink data since 2003, the first year it was available, there are six things that are telling about Woods and Mickelson at the Stadium Course:

Woods

1. If Woods carries the lead into the final stretch, he will likely win, because he dominates the 16th hole.

The last time Woods made a bogey on the final three holes? You have to go all the way back to 2006, when he bogeyed the 17th and 18th in the second round. Even in 2009, when he struggled all week and finished seven shots back, he played the final three holes in 4 under for the week.

The main reason is that Woods dominates the short par-5 16th hole. Since 2003, he's 21 under on the hole, and it's easy to explain why. Longer hitters -- like Woods -- will usually hit a draw with a 3-wood off the tee, leaving in mid-iron in to flat green. If the wind is down, forget it. It's a pushover hole.

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2. For whatever reason, Woods can't play the short par-4 fourth.

Kevin Stadler -- Kevin Stadler -- eagled the 384-yard fourth hole twice in 2008 when he holed wedges on Saturday and Sunday. It's just not that tough a hole -- a simple 3-wood, a wedge to the green. Hal Sutton also eagled the hole twice in one weekend. It was the right club today ... and yesterday, obviously.

Tell that to Woods. He's a collective 8 over on the hole since 2003. He's also 8 over on the 18th in the same span, which doesn't make sense. The 18th is 80 yards longer, 800 times more dangerous, and 8 million times more intimidating.

A lot of the damage was done in 2006, when he played the hole in 4 over for the week, including a double bogey in the final round.

A bogey on the fourth hole at the Stadium Course is enough to put players on tilt because the mammoth par-4 fifth is not a place to get a shot back. The only sure-fire birdie hole on the front is the par-5 second because the par-5 ninth is not usually unreachable in two shots.

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Mickelson

3. Mickelson used to struggle on the par-3 17th, but he's turned things around at the island hole.

Lefty played the island hole in 5 over in 2006, but he didn't dunk another ball into the water until the final round last year. Still, he's 10 over on the hole since 2003. It's not a bad stat, but it's never good to average even par on the 16th and 17th, which Mickelson has done since 2003.

In the same stretch on the 16th and 17th, Woods is 15 under.

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4. Phil owns the par-5 second hole.

Maybe it's because he's left-landed. The hole swings right to left off the tee, then back to the right over the course of only 532 yards. The tee shot obviously fits Mickelson's eye. He can easily fade the ball into a prime spot in the fairway, and from there, it's a hybrid into the green.

Mickelson is 14 under on the hole since 2003, outpacing even the easier par-5 16th, where he's 10 under. When he won in 2007, he birdied the hole every day. On two the final two days, he also birdied the medium par-4 first. No wonder he won -- he was sitting on the third tee box in 2 under. Talk about a good frame of mind.

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5. The Stadium Course has some of the toughest par-3s on TOUR. Neither Woods nor Mickelson are under par for any of them.

The Stadium Course has just one par-3 over 200 yards -- the 237-yard eighth. The other three are a 7-iron or less for the best players in the world, but they still get creamed.

The third hole is only 177 yards, but the green feels two feet wide (judge for yourself by viewing the picture at the top of this article) with a deep bunker on two sides. The eighth is so long that one unnamed pro joked that he hit driver in a practice round. The 181-yard 13th has water on the left and a severe slope, making proper club selection all but impossible. It's almost as if Pete Dye knew that a 6-iron was too much and a 7-iron wasn't enough.

The 17th is a simple enough shot -- the green is one of the widest on the course -- but again, it's usually in between a knock-down 9-iron or a full wedge.

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6. Numbers often lie.

There is no way to know exactly how windy it'll be this week, which is the key defense at the Stadium Course. Driving accuracy is fun to survey, but stats do not tell how well the ball is sitting up in the rough, which is critical in Florida.

Either way, it will be interesting to watch Mickelson and Woods, for two completely separate reasons.