It would be a mistake to overlook Mickelson this week
By Craig Dolch, PGATOUR.COM Contributor
So everyone knows the situation facing the top five players heading into this week's THE TOUR Championship. Win, and they're in like Flynn and the $10 million top prize associated with it.
But if we've learned anything during the first three PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup this year, it's that the standings, like life, don't stand still. Just because you started the Playoffs in the first five spots doesn't mean you stay there.
Just ask former No. 1 Ernie Els, former No. 3 Jim Furyk, No. 4 Phil Mickelson and No. 5 Justin Rose. All have fallen out of the top five entering East Lake, Furyk because he missed his wakeup call and the other three because they missed too many putts.
No. 2 Steve Stricker is the lone one to remain in the top five (No. 4) to control his own destiny, thanks to his third-place finish at The Barclays.
But while Stricker has been the model of consistency in the Playoffs -- he leads in rounds in the 60s and total round played -- he has won just two of the 15 Playoff events, a low percentage considering the shorter fields.
The others' miscues has helped opened the door for Matt Kuchar, Dustin Johnson, Charley Hoffman and Paul Casey to grab the remaining coveted two five spots entering East Lake.
They all know a W this week will lead to a check with a "1" followed by seven zeros on it.
But just because they're sitting at the front of the bus doesn't mean they going to be the first to get to the $10 million payday.
The No. 1 player going into East Lake has won all three FedExCup titles -- heck, two of them just had to show up, play 72 holes and they were assured of walking off the 18th green with the biggest trophy.
Sooner or later, there's going to be an upset here. This is golf, you know.
Kuchar, for one, has won just one "regular season" PGA TOUR event in his decade on the tour, and he's still not recovered from the flu. Johnson, who could wrap up the PGA TOUR Player of the Year award if he wins, has won only one regular season event not played at Pebble Beach; Hoffman's runaway victory at the Deutsche Bank Championship was just his second win in 148 career PGA TOUR starts and he's never played at East Lake; and Casey has just one win in 102 career PGA TOUR stars and lacks the confidence of European Ryder Cup captain Colin Montgomerie to make his 12-man squad despite his No. 7 Official World Golf Ranking.
To be sure, all five players have had great seasons and would be a deserving winner. But they're not exactly a lineup of golf's murderer's row.
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The thought here is the winner of this horse race will be coming from off the lead pack, allowing the others to burn themselves out with the fast fractions of non-stop interviews and thoughts of what-will-I-do-with-the-$10 million.
The way the points chase is set up, however, you can't have a Calvin Borel-type finish, where a player skims the rail and passes the field to claim the top prize from somewhere lower than 10th place.
That leaves us with five players for our upset special: No. 6 Jason Day, No. 7 Luke Donald, No. 8, Ernie Els, No. 9 Martin Laird and No. 10 Phil Mickelson. Two of them are promptly eliminated -- Day and Laird -- because they have never teed it up at East Lake. Even with a week off, there's not enough time to learn the nuances of the Donald Ross/Rees Jones redesign because you can't replicate tournament conditions during a practice round.
That leaves us with three marquee names: Donald, Els and Mickelson. Donald's best finish in three tries at East Lake is T5 and is average finish is 14.6. That's almost middle of the pack in the 30-man field.
So that makes it a two-man race here between two of the sport's biggest names: Els vs. Mickelson. Els' best finish at East Lake was T3, but that was 10 years ago. He has since averaged 12.3 in his last six starts. Moreover, Els hasn't cracked the top 10 in his last seven starts on the PGA TOUR, hardly the form of a potential FedExCup champ.
That leaves us with Mickelson, whose defining moment this year was his second shot out of the straw at Augusta National's 13th and his eventual feel-good Masters victory he shared with cancer-recovering wife, Amy.
As the defending champ, and also having won at East Lake in 2000, not to mention a third in 2008, Mickelson has all the mojo he needs for another feel-good victory that would earn him his first Player of the Year award.
In a year where so many bad things had been written about Mickelson's main rival -- Tiger Woods didn't even qualify for East Lake to defend his FedExCup title -- it would only seem appropriate Mickelson would be the one to walk away with all the hardware. And it would probably be immediately placed on Amy's mantle.
Craig Dolch is a freelance columnist for PGATOUR.COM. His views do not necessarily represent the views of the PGA TOUR.
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