TFI: Stanford St. Jude Championship

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Jun. 3, 2008
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider

Who needs distance in a game of accuracy? That's a theme to keep in mind as we hit TPC Southwind this week, a track that favors a player who keeps it on the straight and narrow off the tee. Get your most confident club ready to go, and let's hunt down some fairways, and FedExCup points.

Kenny Perry has been hot for weeks, culminating in a win at Jack's tournament. Don't expect his momentum to slow down any time soon.
Lyons/Getty Images
Kenny Perry has been hot for weeks, culminating in a win at Jack's tournament. Don't expect his momentum to slow down any time soon.

PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, one wild card selection, and a boost from the Memphis crowd on Sunday. We gave you Kenny Perry and Mike Weir in this space last week.

Group 1 Pick: Kenny Perry
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Boo Weekley, J.B. Holmes

Perry actually has a messy track record here, but the way he's striking the ball right now, I'm prepared to use him wherever possible. Give him an average putting week, and I'll put him in the Top 20; if he gets a break or two with the flat stick, another Top 10 is possible. Paul Azinger, it looks like you have one less Ryder Cup slot to worry about.

No one else from this group has played TPC Southwind all that much. Singh was 30th last year, making his first visit since 1992; Weekley has one solid check (17th) and one missed cut; Holmes is making his tournament debut. Keep Anthony Kim on your bench for this week; he withdrew on Monday.

Group 2 Pick: Robert Allenby
Other Options: Sergio Garcia, Bart Bryant, Justin Leonard, D.J. Trahan

Anytime I see a course that fits Allenby's game, I find it hard not to use him. He's made the Top 20 in three of his last four starts here, and he's having an outstanding season tee-to-green (third in GIR, 18th in total driving). Drop a few putts, mate, and you might be hoisting a trophy on Sunday afternoon.

Justin Leonard is another horse for the course (he won here in 2005, and he's made the Top 10 three other times), but his game hasn't been the sharpest over the last few weeks. I still like him in most formats here, but I can't use him over Allenby. Bryant has five straight checks at TPC Southwind but nothing inside the Top 30. Garcia ran 55th here last year, and Trahan has an ordinary St. Jude resume (30, cut).

Group 3 Pick: Steve Lowery
Other Options: Trevor Immelman, Stuart Appleby, Stephen Ames

Lowery was in a funk for about three months after the AT&T Pebble Beach win, but his solid Memorial Tournament finish (sixth) might signal that he's back in form. He's been 17th or better in his last four stops at TPC Southwind, a trend we need to get behind.

Immelman has a chance anytime he tees it up, but he's also making his tournament debut, which means we can't use him here. Appleby finished 16th here in the mid-90s, but his last two visits have been ordinary (cut, 63). Ames has been inside the Top 30 once in six Southwind turns, though his stat profile does fit the slant of a player who can do well here. Keep Ernie Els off your ticket this week -- he dropped out of the tournament Monday.

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Gay

Group 4 Pick: Brian Gay
Other Options: Brandt Snedeker, Steve Marino, Chad Campbell

It's a tournament Gay likes -- he's teeing it up for the tenth straight year -- and he's had his fair share of success in Memphis, grabbing four checks inside the Top 20, including a fourth last season. His game is quietly coming around this season -- four straight checks, $400K the last month -- and that's enough to get him the check mark.

Campbell doesn't have much past history here -- his one St. Jude start was a missed cut in 2002. Snedeker ran fifth here last season and has the iron game and putter to be in the hunt again. Marino is making his debut -- you know the rules there -- and Ben Crane was a late withdrawal, so keep him off your card.

Group 5 Pick: Padraig Harrington
Other Options: Paul Goydos, Cliff Kresge, Matthew Goggin, Nicholas Thompson

We'll go with a big-name grab in the fifth pool; while Harrington has only been here once (last year's missed cut), he's talented and crafty enough to figure out the track on his second visit. It's going to be a majority pick, but sometimes the prudent play is to follow the herd.

Goggin's breakthrough win is just a matter of time, but this isn't the course to call for it -- he's missed four straight cuts at TPC Southwind and hasn't broken 70 here since 2001. Goydos should be in line for a decent check -- he comes here pretty much every season, and he's made nine cuts in 10 starts (three inside the Top 12).

Thompson's debut over the grounds was nothing special, a tie for 70th. Kresge has made two cuts in four starts here, with his best finish a tie for 30th.

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Villegas

Group 6 Pick: Camilo Villegas
Other Options: Carl Pettersson, Nathan Green, Dudley Hart

Give Villegas a little confidence with the driver on Thursday and Friday, and he'll be a tough beat on the weekend. He ran 16th here two starts back, and he's a magician around the greens.

Pettersson's stat profile suggests he can do well at TPC Southwind, and he was 24th in his last visit back in 2005. Hart ran 10th here two seasons back, and I'm always looking for a reason to root for the estimable veteran. Green's debut here was forgettable (72nd), and he's struggling with his ball striking right now (140th in driving accuracy, 183rd in GIR).

John Senden dropped out of the field Monday -- a shame because he's done pretty well here and would make a nifty pick from this pool.

Rest of the Field: David Toms doesn't show up in the pool portion of the game this week, but he's as much the favorite here as anyone; he took the St. Jude in 2003 and 2004, and he's got three other Top-5 checks this decade. That's too strong to ignore, I don't care what game you're playing, and it helps that he enters this week on a mini-run (six straight cuts) ... Woody Austin is the defending champ, albeit he had nothing much on his TPC Southwind resume before the 2007 triumph. We know Austin can work the ball deftly all week, but will enough putts drop to make a difference? He's just 132nd with the flat stick this year ... Charles Howell came in ninth the last time he walked over these grounds, and perhaps his caddy switch will pay dividends in Memphis ... Joe Durant has a game that fits the track, and he's got two strong cashes over his last three visits (25th, 11th) ... Fred Funk still hits it as straight as anyone, and he's made six straight cuts here, including a third and a ninth. Get out your "Funk's Punks" jersey and settle in for four rounds ... This is a track that should fit Heath Slocum's eye, and he's got past success to fall back on. Slocum finished 12th last year, and fourth two seasons back.

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