The Fantasy Insider: Crowne Plaza Invitational

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Justin Leonard had three rounds in the 60s at Colonial last year.

Hit it straight, wear out the greens, putt well. That game plan will hold up over a lot of tracks, and especially at Colonial Country Club, a short but engaging layout that's hardly changed through the years. Let's go find some horses for the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial this week.

PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, one wild card selection, and a Texas-size heart on the final day.

Group 1 Pick: Phil Mickelson
Other Options: Geoff Ogilvy, Anthony Kim, K.J. Choi, Justin Leonard

In a lot of other groups, Leonard would be my pick. He's just about automatic to make the cut here (anywhere, really), and he's put up nine top-20s at the Colonial over the years. He's got the nerves for the greens.

But Mickelson is comfortable here, too, and it's hard to pick against that (win in 2001, 10 of 11 cuts). With a week off to digest a disappointing finish at THE PLAYERS, I see Lefty coming out with a barrage of birdies.

Ogilvy's skills translate almost anywhere, but he's yet to crack the Top 30 in five Colonial starts. Kim, a popular local pick, ran 18th at the event last year. Choi is never a bad play and he's got three decent Colonial checks on his resume (24, 17, 21).

Group 2 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Steve Stricker, Jeff Quinney, Bart Bryant, Sean O'Hair

It's no surprise Furyk has done so well here, because the layout falls right into his skill set (straight hitter, reliable irons, underrated putter). He finished second last year and he's got four other near misses on his Colonial resume. It's just a matter of time before he hoists some Crowne Plaza Invitational hardware.

There are some big names that we'll pass over in this pool, albeit there is a case-against with each guy. Stricker's game has deserted him of late, off three straight missed cuts, and while he's been decent in five turns here, he's never been in the Top 10.

O'Hair is making his Colonial debut, while Quinney has been here just once (36th). Bryant is another Texan with a stat profile that should translate here, but it hasn't clicked in his first two visits (just one round in the 60s).

Group 3 Pick: Kenny Perry
Other Options: Rory Sabbatini, Chad Campbell, D.J. Trahan, Daniel Chopra

Another slam-dunk selection: Perry has two recent wins here (2003, 2005), and he's been almost letter-perfect in seven of his last eight rounds over the last two weeks. He's gearing up to make a Ryder Cup run, and another win at Colonial would go a long way towards that goal.

Sabbatini has to deal with the defending-champ curse, and while his game is slowly rounding into form, he hasn't looked like the 2006-07 Sabbatini for a while.

Campbell would love to win this one in his home state, perhaps too much; he's contended just once over six starts (second in 2004). Trahan ran seventh here last year and he's been cashing a lot of checks of late, but he hasn't really contended since the January win at the Bob Hope.

Chopra's erratic driver (182nd in tee accuracy) and leaky iron play (153rd in GIR) are going to be tested here; I can't use him.

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Stephen Ames has played well all year. His solid all-around game is well-suited to Colonial's tight layout.

Group 4 Pick: Stephen Ames
Other Options: Brian Gay, Steve Elkington, Steve Lowery, Johnson Wagner

Ames looks like a pretty clear selection from this pool; he's missed just one cut in 2008, he was striping it at Sawgrass two weeks ago, and he's got two top-five finishes in his last four visits to Colonial. Sign me up.

Gay isn't a bad fallback plan; he came in second in 2001 and was 12th two years back. His straight driving and crafty putting will go a long way here.

Elkington and Lowery have been to Colonial often but neither guy has completely figured the track out; Elkington has 15 checks over 16 visits but nothing in the top 20 since 1995, and Lowery hasn't seen the top 30 in his 11 starts. Wagner is still getting his feet wet here -- he missed the Crowne Plaza Invitational cut in 2007.

Group 5 Pick: Steve Marino
Other Options: Dudley Hart, Briny Baird, Ryan Moore, Nicholas Thompson

Consistent players who make cuts get a lot of fantasy love in this space, and with that in mind let's write a ticket on Marino. He's missed just one cut all year, he's wearing out the greens, and he's rolling the ball well. If he can be a little more accurate from the tee box, we've got potential for a deep run.

Hart is a sentimental pick of sorts, and he's had some success here if you look back a few seasons (fourth in 2002, sixth in 1997). If he starts well Thursday, I expect you'll see him have four relevant rounds.

Baird offers some experience at Colonial, grabbing a check in all five of his visits. Moore finished 29th and 65th over the last two seasons, while Thompson is making his Crowne Plaza Invitational debut.

Group 6 Pick: John Senden
Other Options: Ben Crane, Kevin Sutherland, Cliff Kresge, Paul Goydos

Sometimes the pick is more process-of-elimination more than anything else; this is one of those times.

I wanted to pick Crane, who ran fourth here in 2007 and 17th the year prior, but it's hard to say how healthy his back is. I'd love to pick Goydos, who loved this track in the 1990s, but he hasn't done much in his last three visits (cut, cut, 60). Sutherland has a similar record over his last three Colonial appearances (62, cut, cut), and I took out Kresge because of his driving accuracy, though I love him on the greens.

Senden becomes the last man standing, an underrated ball striker who's shown lots of improvement with the putter this season. Okay then -- let's send it, as Bill Raftery might say, with Senden.

Rest of the Field: David Toms was just one round away last week, and he's got the resume and skill set that inspires confidence here. He's been in the Top 10 four times over his last eight visits . . . Jerry Kelly is having an up-and-down season but you have to give him a shot on any course where putting is especially critical. He's done well in his last two Crowne Plaza Inviitational stops (seventh, 12th) . . . Harrison Frazar gets on our sleeper list as a local guy who's done well in his backyard; three Top-10 checks here, including a tie for seventh last season . . . Rod Pampling isn't having his best season, but he did run eight at Wachovia a few weeks back and he's always liked Colonial Country Club (no worse than 12th over the last three starts) . . . Steve Flesch was hit-or-miss in the early part of the season, but over the last two months, Flesch lives -- five strong checks in six starts. He's got nice history at Colonial, winning in 2004 and making 9-of-10 cuts . . . It's always fun to have Ian Poulter in the field, but will he be packing up Friday night? He's never played the event, and it's been a rough year for him off the tee (158th in driving accuracy) and with the irons (181st in GIR) . . . History would suggest a Scott Verplank pick, but he'll need to rebuild his confidence quickly -- he's been in the 60s just three times since February.