The Fantasy Insider: Kapalua
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
It's early on New Year's Day, suburban Michigan. I've got my hit list for the day lined up. Fantasy picks are first on tap, opening week of the season. Going to watch Michigan in the Capital One Bowl, hoping the Wolverines can hang with high-flying Florida. And I can't ignore the snow forever -- there's a car to be rescued, a walk to be cleaned off.
So yeah, I'll be Hawaii Dreaming . . . on such a winter's day.
One of the reasons I love watching the Mercedes-Benz Championship every year is for the pictures, the promises. Short sleeves, warm weather, lush colors. It's going to be a few months before I see them in my backyard, so for now I'll have to settle for the promises on a television screen. The strong field is a draw as well -- as most golf fans know, it's winner's only at Kapalua this week -- if you didn't score a big check in 2007, you're not on the invite list for the kickoff event.
Nothing warms this scribe up quicker than a fast start to the fantasy season, and with that, let's open TFI notebook see what we can figure out for the opener.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups, and every week I'll be opening my books and spelling out the logic behind my selections. When the Salary Cap Cup Game opens in three weeks at the Buick Invitational, we'll tackle those angles as well.
Group 1 Pick: Vijay Singh
(Other choices: Jim Furyk, K.J. Choi, Rory Sabbatini, Steve Stricker).
It's certainly not easy to look past Furyk: he won here in 2001, has a house on the island, and knows how to negotiate the wind and hills. But I've been pointing to Singh at this event for a few weeks now, a combination of his amazing track record at Kapalua (1, P2, T5, 2, T4), and a tidy offseason that hit all the right notes. Singh's amped up his conditioning and he's talking about playing a little less this year -- and when you hit the mid-40s, sometimes less is definitely more. Tiger's not in the way, not to mention Mercedes-slaying Stuart Appleby, and while I generally don't like calling for repeat winners, I'm fully expecting Singh to come charging out of the gate in fine form.
Choi and Sabbatini have both cashed second-place checks over this track, but I need more evidence from them in 2008 before I can consider them part of the elite class. Stricker is the hardest to defend in this spot; he hasn't played here enough to have the requisite course knowledge, and his best finish at Kapalua was a tie for 25th back in 2002.
Group 2 Pick: Scott Verplank
(Other choices: Angel Cabrera, Henrik Stenson, Zach Johnson, Aaron Baddeley)
Cabrera was the first name I scratched in this group. The Duck played rather poorly after his surprising win at the U.S. Open last summer, and he's making his first start over the Kapalua track -- this course isn't kind to first-timers. He'll need to play his way onto my roster. I generally love everything about Stenson's game, but I don't like how he played in the second half of 2007, and he's another Mercedes rookie, so I'll wait and see with him as well. Johnson and Baddeley are both making their second trip here after one check outside the top 20, so process of elimination brings me back to Verplank, the gritty Texan who brings plenty of experience to the table (four Kapalua starts, two top-10 finishes). The one concern with Verplank is his recent thumb surgery, but he wouldn't be here if he didn't feel ready, and his bookcase of knowledge here gives him a decided edge on the others in this pool.
Group 3 Pick: Mike Weir
(Other choices: Hunter Mahan, Woody Austin, Stephen Ames, Charles Howell III)
Fantasy sports become more fun when you get attached to names you normally would want to pull for, which makes this group tricky -- I've got some pet players in this pool. Mahan was an overlord down the stretch last year, carrying my most important club on his shoulders, but he's making his first trip to Kapalua and you know what that means. I'm sure we'll come back to him many times in 2008, but not in the opener. Austin was also very good to me last year and he's as likeable as they come, but career seasons so seldom repeat when they arrive this late in a career -- the heart wants to sign off on the Austin pick, but the head needs to go elsewhere. Howell can't be used until we determine that he's over the shell shock of 2007 -- he was tremendous for three months, then everything fell apart.
That whittles it down to two names, Ames and Weir, a pair of players who rallied late after getting off to slow starts in 2007. Ames won the final official TOUR event at Disney and also took the Skins Game, but Weir also had a late win (the Fry's Electronics Open in October), and I think he's on the cusp of recapturing the level of play he showed earlier in the decade. Checkmark goes to the lefty.
Group 4 Pick: Justin Leonard
(Other choices: Jonathan Byrd, Mark Calcavecchia, Brandt Snedeker, Boo Weekley)
So what do we make of Leonard's 2007 season? He began the year with six missed cuts in a row, and after a modest summer rally he fell down again with early trunk slams at the PGA and The Barclays. Lost season, right? Not so fast -- Leonard found his stride in the Fall Finish, winning the Valero Texas Open, and bagging three other finishes in the Top 13. The competition is much thinner in those events, of course, but I can't blame the fantasy owner who wants to ride with the momentum Leonard carries over into 2008. I guess I'm feeling sentimental, too, so sign me up. Course knowledge won't be an issue -- Leonard's been over the Kapalua track eight times, landing in the Top 10 on three occasions -- and we know Justin is a very capable wind player, drawing on his Texas upbringing and British Open experience.
Byrd is the other solid option in this pool -- he led the TOUR in putting last year, and he's done well in both of his Mercedes stops (T6, T13). Forget the other three names on this ticket -- Brand Snedeker and Boo Weekley are Kapalua rookies (Snedeker is also getting over the flu), and it's hard to say what Mark Calcavecchia might have left in the tank at age 48, even as he's coming off a super year.
Group 5 Pick: Steve Flesch
(Other choices: Chad Campbell, Paul Goydos, George McNeill, Daniel Chopra)
It wasn't that long ago where my hometown auction league would turn into a wrestling match for the rights to Flesch. Maybe we fell in love with the potential he flashed at the beginning of the decade; perhaps it was attraction to the nickname possibilities ("Flesch for Fantasy" seems to beat out "In the Flesch"); I suppose most of us had a soft spot for left-handers. Alas, Flesch wasn't much of a fantasy investment for most of those years, but things got interesting over the last three months of 2007 when he scored a pair of wins (Reno, Turning Stone), in addition to a solid fifth at Milwaukee. All is forgiven, amigo. I'm ready to go double-or-nothing again.
Chad Campbell is the name that sticks out among this pool -- how does a guy with his ability miss 10 cuts and land outside the Top 100 on the FedExCup list? Something doesn't add up, but Campbell needs to show me something before I learn to trust again. I'll admit I'm pulling for George McNeill to step forward (I became a fan during his roll through q-school in 2006), but his first Mercedes trip comes with the mandatory caution flag.
Paul Goydos and Daniel Chopra come with the journeyman tag, surprising winners from 2007; Goydos went almost 11 seasons between victories, while it took Chopra 132 starts to bag a trophy.
Group 6 Pick: Nick Watney
(Other choices: Charley Hoffman, Fred Funk, Brian Bateman, Mark Wilson)
I like the Funkster as much as anyone, but this course is probably too long for him. He's managed to break 74 once over his last eight rounds here. Bateman might be the longest shot on the board and Wilson is another Hail Mary play, so your final choice really boils down to Watney vs. Hoffman. Both of those guys hit the ball a mile, but Watney keeps it in play more often and he was a much better scrambler last year, a skill he'll need when the fickle winds kick up.
And speaking of fickle weather, I see a snow drift with my name on it. Good luck with your Week 1 plays.
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