The Fantasy Insider: Honda
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Perhaps we need less time with the racing form this week, because there's isn't a ton of data to go over. The Honda Classic took a new host in 2007 (PGA National Resort and Spa's Champion Course), so back class doesn't have the same meaning it normally would.
That said, some handicappers insist that doing well in a recurring event is about area and environment as much as it is about the course in play, so let's not completely look past the Honda Classic stalwarts of years past.
And then there's the course itself. PGA National proved to be a stern test for the field last year, as a modest score of five-under got you into a playoff (where Mark Wilson emerged victorious over Boo Weekley, Camilo Villegas and Jose Coceres). The Par-4s were the longest in tour last year, the Par-5s were the fourth-hardest (trailing just the U.S. Open at Oakmont, Firestone and Pebble Beach), and the birdie percentage was the second lowest of the season. Those that negotiated the length and the obstacles of PGA National were rewarded once they got to the putting surface, where the greens showed a true roll and offered less three-putting than you'd normally see (only three tournaments had less three jacks from outside 25 feet).
Now that we've had a quick look around the track, let's find some horses that fit the course.
PGATOUR.com Pick 'em
You need one player in each of the six groups and a wild card selection. Matt Kuchar was our most successful grab from last week, as he dialed up a third-place finish in Mexico.
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Group 1 Pick: Boo Weekley
Other Options: Justin Leonard, Brian Gay, Kevin Na, Steve Marino
It's hard to go away from Leonard in this spot; he's the big name of the pool, and he's been sparkling for most of the season. But Leonard is coming off a six-round week at the WGC-Accenture, which has me wondering how fresh he'll be here. And he didn't make the cut at PGA National last year.
Weekley can be a boom-or-bust play for fantasy at times, but he did run second here last season and he's having a solid ball-striking year (13th in Greens in Regulation), so I'll give him a shot.
Gay and Marino will surely have their backers as well, given what they did at the Mayakoba Classic (Gay won, Marino was second). Marino finished 20th at the Honda Classic last year, while Marino and Na missed the cut.
Group 2 Pick: Mark Wilson
Other Options: Jerry Kelly, Kenny Perry, Mike Weir, Charles Warren
It's nice that Wilson won here last year, but it's the consistency of his 2008 chart that gets him the checkmark on my sheet. He's made 5-of-6 cuts and the only disappointing round he's had this month was the finale at Pebble Beach. He's in fine form and obviously he found PGA National to his liking the first time through.
Kelly didn't make the cut here last year and if the greens run like they did last season, it probably takes away from his winning chances (in theory, the better putters benefit from trickier greens). Perry hasn't seen the weekend in his last two Honda Classic starts. Weir came in 11th at PGA National last year but he hasn't shown much of late, with a quick exit at the WGC-Accenture and a trunk-slam at the Northern Trust Open. Warren is just 82nd in GIR this season, which makes me a little leery of using him on this layout.
Group 3 Pick: Luke Donald
Other Options: Robert Allenby, Kevin Sutherland, Anthony Kim, Chad Campbell
Donald finished an ordinary 46th last year after a nice three-year run at the Honda Classic (win in 2006; 21, 30), but look closer -- Donald actually negotiated PGA National quite well last year after the opening-round 77. I get the sense he's very close to putting things together and jumping back into the star class -- there were some subtle but positive signs from Donald in the desert last week.
Allenby ran fifth last year, he's cashed six decent checks in a row at the Honda Classic, and he's hit the ball well for most of 2008. I'm never hesitant to have his name on my ticket.
Campbell didn't contend last year (52), but he's been sharp with his irons in 2008 and he's found this area to his liking in the past (ninth in 2006, second in 2005). Kim's talent is off the charts but he hasn't contended since his third-place check at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic.
Group 4 Pick: Joe Durant
Other Options: Jonathan Byrd, Troy Matteson, John Mallinger, Ben Crane
Durant hasn't missed a cut this year and he's already grabbed three checks inside the top 15, and that's a seller for me. And here's another consistent green-hunter, a snappy 10th on the GIR page. He didn't make the cut at PGA National last year, but I can't ignore the sharpness he's showing right now.
Byrd, like Kelly, would probably like to see the greens play harder. Byrd had a couple of snappy upsets at the WGC-Accenture, but he's yet to do much at the Honda Classic (cut, 77, cut). That theme sticks for the rest of the pool, as none of these guys have contended at this event yet: Matteson was 71st last year, Mallinger didn't see the weekend, and Crane has yet to finish better than 48th over two starts.
Group 5 Pick: Matt Kuchar
Other Options: Dudley Hart, Bill Haas, Jason Day, Nicholas Thompson
It's OK to play favorites in fantasy golf, and I'll make no apologies for going right back to Kuchar after he grabbed a third-place finish (and a bunch of points) for us last week. This might be the year we see a nifty return from this post-hype sleeper, and keep in mind one of his two PGA TOUR wins came at this very event in 2002.
Hart also has a Honda Classic trophy on his mantle (2000), though he didn't make the cut in 2007. He was hitting the ball very well at Pebble Beach earlier this month, but an untimely flu bug knocked him out the following week.
It's hard to find an angle for the rest of the pool; Day is a first-time starter, Haas didn't make the cut last year, and Thompson came in 55th.
Group 6 Pick: Charlie Wi
Other Options: Vaughn Taylor, Jason Gore, Brandt Snedeker, Y.E. Yang
Wi ran 13th at PGA National last year and he's got the profile you look for on this track: accurate driver, solid iron play, consistent. That gives him the edge on my sheet over Snedeker, who hasn't been that sharp since the FBR Open. Taylor and Gore both missed the cut at PGA National last year, and this is Yang's debut on the course.
Rest of the Field: Ernie Els returns to the Honda Classic, a mild surprise -- he hasn't played the event since the 1990s. Can he quickly erase the bad memory of last week's stunning 6-and-5 loss to Byrd in the opening round of the WGC-Accenture? I'd pulling for him, but let's take a wait-and-see approach for now . . . Justin Rose has three respectable Honda Classic results on his resume (14, 36, 57), though he hasn't played here since 2005. His reliable iron game should play well at PGA National . . . Angel Cabrera didn't make the cut here last year but his game looked sharp as a tack for most of last week. Pick against him at your own peril . . . Trevor Immelman and Arron Oberholser both looked healthy last week, so get them on your tickets in most formats. The Immelman-Henrik Stenson match was, for me, the highlight of the Accenture Week . . . Zach Johnson is known for playing his best in this part of the country, and his lone Honda Classic stop resulted in a 13th-place check. When he's locked in he'll wear out the greens as much as anyone, so don't be afraid to dial him Johnson in this spot.
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