The Fantasy Insider: THE TOUR Championship
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
Don't trust anyone over 30 this week -- only the top 30 in the FedExCup standings get invited to this exclusive dance. The point shuffle also presents us with some interesting pool decisions as a host of names are in different company than usual; with that in mind, it's a challenging and fun time to be making a batch of fantasy picks. Sharpen your pencil and meet me on the first tee.
PGATOUR.com Playoff Pick 'em
You need six selections and one wild-card pick, as usual.
Group 1 Pick: Sergio Garcia
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Camilo Villegas, Mike Weir
Singh is rested, hot as can be, and on a track that suits his game -- he's run ninth, fourth, eighth and seventh since THE TOUR Championship came to East Lake Golf Club. And he doesn't seem like the type of player who ever mails anything in; that's not an issue here. But can't you make the assumption that Garcia and Villegas might want this one a little bit more?
I can't get past the idea that Garcia is owed a win from this summer, and he'd like to erase the bad memory from Valhalla as soon as possible. A contending week in Atlanta will do that nicely, and I'm expecting it. Maybe I'm being stubborn here, but I want the player with more to gain, and that leads me away from Singh.
Villegas is just as intriguing a selection, off his brilliant win at the BMW Championship, but when it comes down to ball striking, I have to side with Garcia (and Singh) over the young Colombian. I can't blame you if you play this angle, however.
Weir hasn't been over the grounds since 2004, and the grind of the season has taken a toll on him, so maybe it's best to use a different pick in this spot.
Group 2 Pick: Jim Furyk
Other Options: Kevin Sutherland, Anthony Kim, Dudley Hart
Furyk has been steady in three trips to East Lake (13th, second, 11th), and he's the only player in this pool who's teed it up here since the event relocated. Furyk still has plenty to play for, with an eye on qualifying for the Mercedes Championship next January (he's yet to win in 2008). I'm not betting against him.
Kim's a good play on any track, even with no previous experience here; after Furyk, he's the guy I'd go with. Hart comes in confident off two excellent playoff showings (second at the BMW, 12th at The Barclays), and beware a loose contender essentially playing with house money after a surprise advancement.
Sutherland consistently scores better than his individual stats suggest he should, but I get a little gun-shy when I see some of his specific numbers (119th in driving accuracy, 113th in putting).
Group 3 Pick: Ben Curtis
Other Options: Steve Stricker, Justin Leonard, K.J. Choi
Curtis is clearly playing the best of this group right now; he's missed just one cut since April. I like his accurate driver, I trust his putter, and I'm impressed by his scrambling.
Just as important, no one else in this pool has a dominant tournament history to steer me off the Curtis pick. Choi hasn't cracked the top 20 here in three starts, Stricker's lone appearance was a tie for 17th and Leonard hasn't seen the top 10 in any TOUR Championship since the 1990s.
Group 4 Pick: Hunter Mahan
Other Options: Tim Clark, Ernie Els, Ken Duke
Mahan's tantalizing upside has shown here and there in the playoffs, and this might be the week where he puts it together for four rounds. The East Lake layout seemed to fit his eye in his 2007 debut here (fifth).
There's always a case for Els, who's had seven excellent rounds in his last two playoff events and enters the event rested. Write it down now; he's going to have a dynamite 2009.
Duke has made nine cuts in a row, he's been sharp all through the playoffs, and he's shown weekend improvement the last two weeks. He's a dangerous player if he can get a slightly faster start this time around.
Clark ran well last season, but I wonder if he has enough length to contend on the weekend. This pool looks a little too deep for me to take the plunge on him.
Group 5 Pick: Phil Mickelson
Other Options: Trevor Immelman, Stuart Appleby, Bubba Watson
Let's just come out and say it -- Mickelson's results have been a little disappointing (by Lefty standards) over the last four months. He doesn't have a win even with Tiger Woods on the sidelines, and he wasn't a major part of the Ryder Cup victory either (1-2-2 record). This is the last big stage for Lefty to make a statement on for 2008, but he's yet to show us anything great at East Lake (19th, 20th). It's hard to skip over a big name like this, but how can we ignore what's happened on the course of late? Mickelson's seasonal resumé would be accepted by most of the TOUR; but he's a special talent, and we grade him a little differently, it comes with the territory.
There isn't an obvious pick if we steer away from Mickelson, but I'm ready to give Appleby a go. He's been steady over the East Lake layout (10th, seventh, 15th), he's rested, and he's made 12 cuts in a row.
Watson's closing statement at the BMW Championship (66-65) makes him a dangerous contender; watch out if he breaks from the box quickly. Immelman obviously has the game and the head to win in strong fields, but he hasn't made a deep run since early June, and I'm a little leery on his iron game (121st in GIR) and streaky putting (168th).
Group 6 Pick: Billy Mayfair
Other Options: Stewart Cink, Carl Pettersson, Briny Baird
Mayfair's a little under the radar, a respected vet that can get lost in the shuffle of all this star-power. I'm willing to buy in because I like his consistency (just one missed cut in six months), his true driver (11th in accuracy), and his irons (11th in GIR). Like most of the field, the key here is getting some early confidence on the greens.
The native Cink knows the layout as well as anyone, albeit his three starts at East Lake since the event shifted haven't been that special (11th, 25th, 21st), and he's been nowhere near contention since his win at the Travelers Championship. Do we put too much stock in the home-game angle at times? It's a legitimate question.
Baird's another dynamite iron player, although he's yet to make a start here. I love Pettersson's competitiveness and steady hand, though his lone appearance at East Lake was ordinary (18th).
Rest of the Field: Robert Allenby has been a fantasy boon for most of the year, with his radar irons and consistent play. How has this guy gone without a win for so long? He was a respectable 11th here last season, and I'll be surprised if he's not at least in the top of the field when it's all said and done. ... Kenny Perry was a heck of a story earlier in the year, but he's tailed off of late, and I wonder if there will be an emotional drain now that the Ryder Cup -- his admitted focus of the season -- is over. I'll tip the cap to the veteran for a dynamite season, but I'm not picking him here. ... Chad Campbell's best finish here is 17th over three turns, and he's got the Ryder Cup/fatigue questions that face so many players. ... Ryuji Imada, Andres Romero and D.J. Trahan are all making their East Lake debut. If Romero can keep the driver in the short grass a little more often, I like how the rest of his game translates to the test at hand.
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