Fantasy Insider: Gear up, Playoff fever grips The Hub
By Scott Pianowski, The Fantasy Insider
The New England weather has been gorgeous of late, and the TPC Boston backdrop is a wonderful vacation spot for the bombers in the field -- the birdies flow at this event. Grip it, rip it, and let's grab some points as Playoff Fever grips The Hub.
PGATOUR.com Playoff Pick 'em
You need six selections and one wild-card pick, as usual. The less we say about last week's picks, the better -- we'll make it up to you.
Group 1 Pick: Phil Mickelson
Other Options: Vijay Singh, Stewart Cink, Anthony Kim, Kenny Perry
It's an either-or proposition with Mickelson and Singh: both players fit the course, love the layout, and have a recent win here (Mickelson last year, Singh in 2004). At the end of the day old habits die hard and I trust Mickelson on these undulating greens a lot more than I do Singh, and after watching Vijay roll in some long ones last week, I dare him to pull that rabbit act two weeks in a row. Line up with the Lefty.
Perry's game hasn't been sharp of late and his two starts at TPC Boston have been ordinary at best (47th, 30th). Cink also has a modest track record here (cut, 29th) and is dealing with a bit of a summer slump. Kim would be my third selection from this pool -- he can go on a birdie run with anyone -- even as his first trip to this event was a missed cut last season.
Group 2 Pick: Sergio Garcia
Other Options: Jim Furyk, Padraig Harrington, Robert Allenby, Justin Leonard
It's very hard for me to look past Allenby in this spot; he's got four strong cashes at this track (eighth, fourth, 15th, 19th) and has been impeccably consistent in 2008. But he's also had trouble closing the deal on Sundays (it's amazing he hasn't won in so long), and Garcia's dazzling play of late ultimately gets the check mark. Garcia has the quietly-confident look of a killer on the course these days, and that confidence is showing in his public interactions as well. He knows he's on the cusp of a dynamic breakthrough and we'll want a piece of it.
This isn't the perfect set-up for Furyk (55th, 35th, 13th), not that he's ever a bad selection. Harrington missed the cut at Boston last year and I'm reluctant to use him after last week's step backwards. The length of the course makes me hesitant to dial up Leonard, though he does have a 15th-place check from the event.
Group 3 Pick: Stuart Appleby
Other Options: K.J. Choi, Kevin Sutherland, Carl Pettersson, Ben Curtis
I like how Appleby's been hitting it the last three events, and he's got the length and the putter to contend here. He's yet to do anything on the TPC Boston track, but most of the pool here has the same issue, so past performance won't influence our selection too much.
Choi has quietly cashed three top-20 checks in his last four starts, but the length of the course and the birdie-friendly play isn't something that plays into his hands. Sutherland (cut, 50th, cut, cut) and Curtis (cut, cut, cut) have both struggled here despite multiple looks. Pettersson would be my second choice from this group; he's got some Deutsche Bank Championship success if you look back far enough (fourth in 2005, 11th in 2003) and he's a respectable 48th in birdie average.
Group 4 Pick: J.B. Holmes
Other Options: Trevor Immelman, Geoff Ogilvy, Ryuji Imada, Steve Stricker
I've looked away from Holmes most weeks, but let's give him the endorsement here and bombs away. He's third in driving distance and eighth in birdie average, and that's going to serve him well here.
If you prefer a more-established name, there are several to choose from here. Stricker has two straight top 10s working at the Deutsche Bank Championship, Ogilvy was sixth last year and fifth in 2005, and Imada had negotiated the track well (17th, 18th) despite what he gives up off the tee. Immelman has improved over his last two TPC Boston stops, though his best showing is a tie for 23rd.
Group 5 Pick: Boo Weekley
Other Options: Hunter Mahan, Sean O'Hair, Mike Weir, Andres Romero
The crowd isn't upset, it's chanting "Boo." And there's every reason to get behind the affable pro: he's 19th in ball striking, 44th in scoring average, 62nd in birdie average, 30th in greens in regulation. He'll need to get comfortable on the greens quickly, but you can say that about anyone in the field most weeks. I'm feeling a full week of Weekley will soon be upon us.
O'Hair's profile is similar to Weekley's, dynamic ball striker but the putting hasn't been there consistently. I was stunned to see O'Hair ranked 201st in birdie average. Mahan's skill set makes me borderline paranoid to ever pick against him, but he's never cracked the top 20 in five Deutsche Bank Championship starts, and he's slammed the trunk three times. Weir has the mind and putter needed to score on this course, but his ordinary length will work against him. Romero's making his TPC Boston debut, and that always makes me a little leery from a fantasy sense.
Group 6 Pick: Briny Baird
Other Options: Billy Mayfair, Matthew Goggin, Nicholas Thompson, Chad Campbell
Baird has five straight cashes at this event, and he's quietly having a super year in the stats: first in greens in regulation, ninth in scoring average, 42nd in birdie average. I'm sold, sign me up.
Goggin is closing in on his breakthrough win and there's no obvious weakness in his game. I'll be chasing him in most of my drafts and auctions next year, unless he does something the next few weeks to blow his cover (and he very well might). Thompson is a heck of a driver and putter, but his iron game needs to be a little cleaner if he's going to contend in The Hub. Mayfair hasn't broken the top 30 in five visits here, and Campbell's lone start resulted in a tie for 60th.
Rest of the Field: Rory Sabbatini is quietly coming around (three decent checks in a row), and he ran sixth here last year; if he weren't still in the world top 30, I would have selected him as a sleeper this week. He's ready to be heard from again... Adam Scott hasn't fared well in recent Boston visits, but he's also got a win and a second on the resume, and the ideal skill set to attack this layout... The length of TPC Boston will work against Scott Verplank, but he's got plenty of fire in the belly and extra motivation with the BMW Championship cut staring him in the face. I expect him to answer the bell... The stat page is very kind to Ben Crane across the board, but every time I endorse him in this space I feel like Charlie Brown, duped by Lucy and the football-swipe again. OK, one last try... It's the course debut for Ernie Els, so the normal caveats apply... Fred Couples has one start at the event, a tie for eighth back in 2005. Back class and a veteran's experience make him worth a shot as a semi-sleeper... Angel Cabrera is starting to have that look in his eye again, and he was a respectable 23rd here last year. I see him fitting this layout and I'm expecting another check in the top 25.
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