Inside the FedExCup: Sleepers, Flyers and more

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Scott Pianowski is The Fantasy Insider; Steve Dennis is a PGA TOUR staffer who digs through FedExCup points data for fun. (We don't get it, either.) They tend to analyze the TOUR from very different perspectives, and now they're going head-to-head in the first of their weekly e-mail exchanges going Inside the FedExCup.

From: STEVE
To: SCOTT
Subject: Travel and Sleepers

Williamson

The tournament officials at last week's John Deere Classic provided a plane (the one used by the Dallas Mavericks during basketball season) to ferry 20 players to this week's British Open. My question to you, Scott: Were the players who took advantage of the flight smart to do so, or would they have been better off to give up acquiring potential FedExCup points -- even though there are just five weeks left in the regular season -- to head overseas a week early and play the Scottish Open, as Phil Mickelson did?

Before you answer that, here's my "out on a limb" response.

It depends.

Adamonis

I think you probably give yourself a slightly better chance to win the Open by heading for Europe a little early, getting acclimated and playing a few competitive rounds of golf in somewhat similar conditions prior to the Open.

But if you have a range of goals -- Ryder Cup team, high position in the FedExCup, etc. -- in addition to winning a major, then you would've been better off staying in the Quad Cities. That's because one tournament can make a big difference in the FedExCup. Consider that Jay Williamson moved from 158th to 88th based on his T2 at John Deere, and Will Mackenzie went from 214th to 145th by finishing T4. Brad Adamonis's T2 was worth 60 places -- from 135th to 75th.

Plus, if anyone is going to make a move up the FedExCup standings, now would be a good time to start. Roughly 3,200 points separates 100th from 30th, so making a big move will probably entail winning or finishing second at a full-points event, or winning this week's U.S. Bank Championship and the Legends Reno-Tahoe in early August (a combined 4,500 points) or collecting three top 10s -- including at least one top five -- in the next five weeks.

Now for my other question: Who do you like to make a move down the stretch? That is, who is currently outside the top 50 but will get into the top 30 of the FedExCup standings before the Playoffs start?

From: SCOTT
To: STEVE
Subject: Nicked up

If you're a serious contender to win the British Open, you head across the pond a week early. Period, end of story. Traveling has a way of sneaking up on you; it's surprisingly draining, even if you're doing it in the lap of luxury.

We're talking about a time change (and some hours lost), a culture change, climate change, and don't forget the style of golf in Britain is completely different. A travel day and then two more days is not enough to adequately be prepared.

That said, I don't blame the middle tier of players who decided to stay stateside and take their shot at the John Deere. Winning is an elusive thing on a circuit this competitive, and all sorts of doors get opened when you do a trophy hoist (especially if it's your first). It would have been a heck of a story had Williamson or Adamonis prevailed Sunday (Adamonis did in fact finish his round, right? It's fair to say his playing style is "deliberate.")

Now what the heck do we do with Kenny Perry? He's got those three wins in five starts and he's legitimately in the Player of the Year mix, but how can he skip two majors? The Ryder Cup goal was a noble thing to start, but that's a foregone conclusion now. I could understand if he merely wanted a break this week, but he's still playing. I salute your run, Kenny, and my fantasy teams are indebted to you, but I'd really like to see you compete against the world's best players this week in England. It's a shame it won't happen.

Nick O'Hern is my sleeper of the week, both for the Open Championship and in the FedExCup (where he sits 64th). He's a relatively short hitter but everything else in his game is excellent -- straight off the tee, radar irons, steely nerves with the putter. He's patient, unflappable. I see a breakthrough coming shortly. One more Rip Van Winkle? Mathew Goggin (58th) will win a tournament in the next calendar year or I'll eat my hat.

From: STEVE
To: SCOTT
Subject: Evansville, Clarksville and Camilo Ville(gas)

OK, I concede the point regarding going over early for the British. Just two Open winners since 1980 have played the PGA TOUR event the previous week -- Todd Hamilton, who finished T59 at the 2004 John Deere Classic, and Ian Baker-Finch, who lost in a playoff to Bruce Fleisher at the 1991 New England Classic. It was Fleisher's only victory of his career.

Villegas

As for late-season movers ...

I like O'Hern -- he's been hot since the beginning of May, with eight straight made cuts, including a T10 at the Memorial and a T3 at the AT&T National. I agree that Goggin will break through with a win soon, but he isn't getting on my FedExCup team -- I think he's too inconsistent to contend. He has missed three of his last six cuts (five of 18 for the year) -- and in the Playoffs, missed cuts will spell disaster.

In addition to those guys, I'd add Tim Clark and Camilo Villegas. Clark (currently 68th) is heating up right on cue -- after a very spotty first half of 2008, he has a T2 plus four other decent finishes in his last 5 starts. Last year, three straight terrific tournaments -- John Deere, U.S. Bank and the World Golf Championships-Bridgestone Invitational -- got him to the doorstep of the top 30, and he got into THE TOUR Championship with good play in the Playoffs. Villegas (51st) has seven straight made cuts, with a T7 at Verizon, a 3rd at the AT&T Classic and a T9 at the US Open. He's moved up over 40 spots since his last missed cut, at the Masters.

And for my flyer: Jeff Overton. He's currently 131st on the FedExCup points list, and unless you're from Evansville, Ind., you've probably never heard of him. But he was the medalist at the British Open qualifying tournament at TPC Michigan, and since then has picked up his two best finishes of the year -- T9 at AT&T National and T24 at the John Deere Classic. Last year at the Wyndham Championship, he had his career best, a T2. He might not do much this week, but watch out for him in the final four weeks of the Regular Season.

From: SCOTT
To: STEVE
Subject: Still on the clock ...

I'm not letting you get out of here without a British Open pick. Give me Sergio Garcia, who grew up at The PLAYERS, and now heads to his best major (six top 10s in seven years). Tiger Woods isn't around to get in his way (or his head). I won't be surprised if he not only wins, but in dominating fashion.

You've got me on the Overton bandwagon, a guy I admittedly knew little about before your last note. That's one of the great things about following the TOUR, getting invested in lesser-known players and following them as they (hopefully) blossom into notable pros. Let's fire up a few choruses of "Indiana, Our Indiana" and see where the Overton story goes the rest of the summer.

From: STEVE
To: SCOTT
Subject: Pampling and the Kitchen Cink

OK, I'll toss a name or two in the bowler, and take a few out while I'm at it. One caveat -- I'm ignoring non-members of the PGA TOUR, which is pretty risky at The Open.

Cink

That said, I like guys who are hot, so I took a look at the ones who've scored the most FedExCup points in the past 8 weeks. (Kenny Perry leads this list by more than 9,400 points, but he's laughing all the way to the U.S. Bank this week.) Some pretty interesting names are on the list -- Stewart Cink, Phil Mickelson, Anthony Kim, Justin Leonard, Rocco Mediate, Rod Pampling, Robert Allenby, Tommy Armour III and Fredrik Jacobson round out the top 10 (excluding Tiger, whose lone start in the past eight weeks -- the US Open win -- put him 4th on the list).

Armour isn't in the field, and I'm reluctant to pick guys who haven't played The Open for a while. That drops first-timer Kim, along with Jacobson and Mediate, neither of whom have done much at The Open, with the exception of Jacobson's T6 in 2003. I want to like Robert Allenby, but his record in majors is pretty weak -- 20 missed cuts in 59 attempts, and just four top 10s. His best British Open finish is a T10 in 1997.

Pampling

Mickelson and Leonard both missed the cut last year at Carnoustie, but I'm betting they both play the weekend at Royal Birkdale. Until Phil wins another major, though, I won't be convinced he's past the Winged Foot incident. His best finish in a major since then: T5 at this year's Masters. Other than that, he has zero top 15 finishes and two missed cuts in eight attempts. For the second-ranked player in the world, that's pretty slim pickings. Leonard has been awesome the past nine months, dating back to his victory last October at the Valero Texas Open. Either or both of them could be in the mix, but they're not my picks.

I'm taking Stewart Cink and Rod Pampling. (I get two because it's my column.) Cink is quietly playing lights out golf this year -- a first, two seconds and two thirds, and he hasn't missed a cut since football season ended. He was T3 at the Masters this year and T6 at the British last year. He has had his share of final-round mishaps, but I believe the Travelers win could be the catalyst for great things in his future.

Pampling is admittedly a flyer, but if he's around for the weekend, he could be a real surprise. He is averaging nearly a full stroke better on Saturday and Sunday than on Thursday and Friday -- and that's just when he makes the cut. Another interesting stat -- since the end of the West Coast swing, when he makes the cut, he averages a top 10 finish. That's somewhat misleading because he's missed six of 15 cuts in that time, but still ...

What I like best about Pampling is that I think many of us have come to expect guys not named Tiger to back up on the weekend, but Pampling shifts into a higher gear. He's better on Saturday than Thursday and Friday, and he's even better on Sunday than Saturday. I have to love that, and he's made the cut at The Open each of the last fpir years.

That's all I know, and a fair bit of what I don't. Scott, I enjoyed the conversation, and look forward to next week, when we can dissect what will be the third national open championship of the year. (Think hockey, Mounties and the rock group Rush.)