The Fantasy Insider: I believe in Hope
 
Jan. 16, 2007

Right off the top, this big honkin' reminder: Set your lineups before going to bed Tuesday night! The Bob Hope Chrysler Classic begins Wednesday so if you snooze, you really lose.

Consider yourself forewarned.

Now, here's a big honkin' warning: This is the most important week in the first half of the League Championship season.

Seriously.

The Fantasy Insider learned this fact that hard way last season. And he's here to warn you now to do anything -- anything -- to put together the strongest possible lineup this week.

TFI comes to you this week chastened, chagrined even. The story he's about to relate is not one of his best moments, not by a long shot. But he would renege on his role as your loyal columnist if he didn't tell you every gory detail.

Because what happened to TFI last January should not happen to anyone.

There were a ton of things happening in TFI's life when the Hope arrived last year. He felt the pressure of a few impending deadlines, he was distracted by a few things at home...

OK, and he'll admit it: He was supremely confident with his recent draft selections and his prowess against the rest of the rotisserie Expert League.

So TFI did something unusual: He pretty much blew off any serious research on his lineup, short- or long-term, activated the guys in the field and breezed through his Monday night column writing session.

As a result he went into the Hope with only four players instead of last season's allowable six. He tidied up his column and shipped it to HQ. And immediately after, in the wee hours of Tuesday morning, he jumped into another work project.

Now, TFI likes to say his parents didn't raise no dummies, but within 72 hours he wasn't repeating that line.

You see it took only a day or so of the Hope for TFI to realize that he'd taken four pretty good players for the week -- Daniel Chopra (tied for 35th), Brandt Jobe (tied for 16th), Joe Ogilvie (tied for 30th) and Ryan Palmer (tied for 10th).

But he was losing ground fast in the cumulative stats with those two open slots.

And those slots would remain open until the cut was made after the fourth round.

Translation: Everyone on your team gets to rack up big stats -- or play like a proverbial pig -- for 72 holes instead of 36.

Now you can see why TFI spent Hope weekend in a cold sweat. Even if his fearless foursome went into a four-way playoff there's no way they could hit enough fairways and greens, can enough putts or make enough cash to keep the team from falling into a deep hole in the overall standings, especially in cumulative statistics such as birdies and eagles.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS
2006 BHCC Results
1. Chad Campbell (-25)
2. Jesper Parnevik (-22)
3. Scott Verplank (-22)
4. John Huston (-21)
5. Phil Mickelson (-19)

It wasn't until the League Championship season's last few weeks that TFI clawed his way back into second, where he finished behind Mike Vitti, the stat guru of PGATOUR.com.

TFI's convinced he would have won the league title if he hadnt screwed up the Hope. So let his error serve as your lesson.

Now, some readers may remark (or stuff TFI's e-mailbag with comments) that having only four active players in this year's format means it's far less likely that someone will seriously wound their chances at the Hope.

Perhaps. But TFI's not buying it.

In fact, he's got the sneaking suspicion having only four active players magnifies errors made by team owners. And by errors he means everything from "missed cuts" and "disqualifications" to "dogs eating homework."

Perhaps the first week of the Expert League is indicative of what to expect. Perhaps not. But TFI noticed that five team owners had at least one player missing the cut or DQ'd. Four of those teams stood in fifth through eighth place while the other ranked No. 2 only because he had two guys in the top eight.

In fact, there's a 17.5-point gap between fourth place (55.0) and fifth (37.5), an awfully early chasm between the haves and have nots.

TFI knows which side of that divide he'd rather stay on the rest of the season.

Which brings us to This Week's Brilliant Question:

"Darren Clarke went widely undrafted in my three leagues so I picked him. It seems like he performs quite well when in the mix, but he had a limited [2006] due to his wife's illness. I wonder how much he's likely to play, especially in the U.S. I also read an article about Paul Azinger re-dedicating himself. It sounded like he might make a Tom Lehman-like run this year. I grabbed him just in case he top-10s at the Sony and everybody else wants him. Is he going to be good enough to warrant my dropping of Bubba Watson for him?" --Dave

Clarke: TFI would steer clear this season. The first year after the death of a spouse is an emotional wringer, especially when spending extended time away from home. Expect him to cut back a bit and drop a few places in the Official World Ranking before regaining his game (read: another Ryder Cup year in 2008). He'll may win on the European circuit but TFI would be amazed if he does much beyond 15 mediocre starts in the U.S.

Azinger: Tough to say. He's regained his hunger after fidgeting in ABC's broadcast booth. Regaining his form is another matter. TFI has always admired his work ethic and competitive nature, which is more than half the battle. Watson will give big numbers in driving distance but remain erratic elsewhere. Take Azinger for a more balanced output.

Rotisserie results for Expert League at Sony Open of Hawaii: 56.5 points (third). 300+ drives, third; fairways, eighth; greens, fifth; scrambling, second; putting, second; scoring, third; eagles, second; birdies, third; scrambling, second; FedEx Cup points, third. Of course, TFI in his infinite wisdom keeps Steve Stricker (tied fourth) on the bench, blowing his chance at opening in first place if he'd played Stricker instead of Bubba Watson (tied 48th).

Rotisserie lineup for Bob Hope Chrysler Classic: Bubba Watson, Cameron Beckman, Anders Hansen, Ryan Palmer. Competing but not active: Kevin Sutherland. Not in field: K.J. Choi, Tim Clark, Scott Gutschewski, Padraig Harrington, Geoff Ogilvy, Steve Stricker, David Toms. Roster move: Dropped Fred Funk, added Ryan Palmer.

Match play results for Pacific Tour League at Sony Open of Hawaii: back9 10.5, TFI 7.5. Record: 0-1. TFI rebounds 3-1 in the third round after losing all but one point the previous day, then gets hammered Sunday.

Match play lineup for Bob Hope Chrysler Classic: Jonathan Byrd, Anders Hansen, Daniel Chopra, Ryan Palmer. Alternate: Andrew Buckle. Not in field: Vijay Singh, Davis Love III, Troy Matteson, Ernie Els, Fredrik Jacobson, Zach Johnson, Nick OčHern.

Salary Cap Cup results for Sony Open of Hawaii: The main lineup of Vijay Singh (121 FedEx Cup points, tied 34th), Luke Donald (2,200, tied second), Bubba Watson (63, tied 48th), Stephen Ames (0, disqualified) and Will MacKenzie (90, tied 42nd) earned 2,824 points and finished 3,253rd. Through Week 2 it totaled 11,970 points and ranked 164th (!). Time for Mr. Ames to approach the blackboard and write 100 times "I will not sign for an incorrect scorecard." A few more points would have pushed TFI into the top 100 overall, darn it.

The "Hey, buddy" lineup of Trevor Immelman (90, tied 42nd), Davis Love III (51, tied 68th), Charles Howell III (2,200, tied second), Shigeki Maruyama (0, missed cut) and Anthony Kim (0, missed cut) earned 2,841 points and finished 3,129th. Through Week 2 it totaled 4,621 points and ranked 8,427th. Tough to watch Howell's last nine, even if it was the backup lineup.

Week 2 winner: Send me Balls 11,609.

Segment 1 leader: Rodekill 16,108.

Salary Cap Cup lineup for Bob Hope Chrysler Classic: Main lineup, Phil Mickelson $300,000, Tom Pernice Jr. $251,250, John Senden $248,000, Bernhard Langer $111,500, Will MacKenzie $85,500. Total: $996,250. "Hey, buddy" backup lineup, Chad Campbell $296,750, Jerry Kelly $218,750, Jesper Parnevik $202,500, Ryuji Imada $108,250, John Huston $75,000. Total: $901,250. Tiebreakers: 329, 1.

Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please remember to include your team and league names and whether youčre playing a rotisserie or match-play league.